Agrogalaxy Participacoes (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.22
| AGXY3 Stock | 6.22 0.13 2.13% |
Agrogalaxy |
Agrogalaxy Participacoes Target Price Odds to finish over 6.22
The tendency of Agrogalaxy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 6.22 | 90 days | 6.22 | about 65.07 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agrogalaxy Participacoes to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 65.07 (This Agrogalaxy Participacoes SA probability density function shows the probability of Agrogalaxy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Agrogalaxy Participacoes SA has a beta of -2.32. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Agrogalaxy Participacoes SA are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Agrogalaxy Participacoes is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Agrogalaxy Participacoes SA has an alpha of 0.2189, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Agrogalaxy Participacoes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Agrogalaxy Participacoes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agrogalaxy Participacoes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Agrogalaxy Participacoes. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Agrogalaxy Participacoes' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Agrogalaxy Participacoes' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Agrogalaxy Participacoes.Agrogalaxy Participacoes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agrogalaxy Participacoes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agrogalaxy Participacoes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agrogalaxy Participacoes SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agrogalaxy Participacoes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -2.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Agrogalaxy Participacoes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agrogalaxy Participacoes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agrogalaxy Participacoes can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Agrogalaxy Participacoes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agrogalaxy Participacoes has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Agrogalaxy Participacoes Technical Analysis
Agrogalaxy Participacoes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agrogalaxy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agrogalaxy Participacoes SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agrogalaxy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agrogalaxy Participacoes Predictive Forecast Models
Agrogalaxy Participacoes' time-series forecasting models is one of many Agrogalaxy Participacoes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agrogalaxy Participacoes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Agrogalaxy Participacoes
Checking the ongoing alerts about Agrogalaxy Participacoes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agrogalaxy Participacoes help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Agrogalaxy Participacoes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agrogalaxy Participacoes has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Additional Tools for Agrogalaxy Stock Analysis
When running Agrogalaxy Participacoes' price analysis, check to measure Agrogalaxy Participacoes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agrogalaxy Participacoes is operating at the current time. Most of Agrogalaxy Participacoes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agrogalaxy Participacoes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agrogalaxy Participacoes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agrogalaxy Participacoes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.