ALCAT (France) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.54
| ALCAT Stock | 3.54 0.04 1.14% |
ALCAT |
ALCAT Target Price Odds to finish over 3.54
The tendency of ALCAT Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 3.54 | 90 days | 3.54 | about 10.16 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ALCAT to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 10.16 (This ALCAT probability density function shows the probability of ALCAT Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ALCAT has a beta of -0.0198. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ALCAT are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ALCAT is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ALCAT has an alpha of 0.1745, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ALCAT Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ALCAT
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ALCAT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ALCAT's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ALCAT Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ALCAT is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ALCAT's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ALCAT, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ALCAT within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
ALCAT Technical Analysis
ALCAT's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ALCAT Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ALCAT. In general, you should focus on analyzing ALCAT Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ALCAT Predictive Forecast Models
ALCAT's time-series forecasting models is one of many ALCAT's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ALCAT's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ALCAT in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ALCAT's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ALCAT options trading.
Additional Tools for ALCAT Stock Analysis
When running ALCAT's price analysis, check to measure ALCAT's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ALCAT is operating at the current time. Most of ALCAT's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ALCAT's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ALCAT's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ALCAT to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.