Garuda Metalindo (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 835.00
| BOLT Stock | IDR 835.00 5.00 0.60% |
Garuda |
Garuda Metalindo Target Price Odds to finish over 835.00
The tendency of Garuda Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 835.00 | 90 days | 835.00 | about 10.21 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Garuda Metalindo to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 10.21 (This Garuda Metalindo Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Garuda Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Garuda Metalindo has a beta of 0.24 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Garuda Metalindo average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Garuda Metalindo Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Garuda Metalindo Tbk has an alpha of 0.1594, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Garuda Metalindo Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Garuda Metalindo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Garuda Metalindo Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Garuda Metalindo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Garuda Metalindo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Garuda Metalindo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Garuda Metalindo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Garuda Metalindo Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Garuda Metalindo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 38.97 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Garuda Metalindo Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Garuda Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Garuda Metalindo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Garuda Metalindo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.9 B |
Garuda Metalindo Technical Analysis
Garuda Metalindo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Garuda Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Garuda Metalindo Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Garuda Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Garuda Metalindo Predictive Forecast Models
Garuda Metalindo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Garuda Metalindo's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Garuda Metalindo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Garuda Metalindo in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Garuda Metalindo's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Garuda Metalindo options trading.
Check out Garuda Metalindo Backtesting, Garuda Metalindo Valuation, Garuda Metalindo Correlation, Garuda Metalindo Hype Analysis, Garuda Metalindo Volatility, Garuda Metalindo History as well as Garuda Metalindo Performance. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Complementary Tools for Garuda Stock analysis
When running Garuda Metalindo's price analysis, check to measure Garuda Metalindo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Garuda Metalindo is operating at the current time. Most of Garuda Metalindo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Garuda Metalindo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Garuda Metalindo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Garuda Metalindo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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