First Busey Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 23.68
| BUSE Stock | USD 23.68 0.48 1.99% |
Closest to current price First long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
First Busey Target Price Odds to finish over 23.68
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 23.68 | 90 days | 23.68 | about 12.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Busey to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 12.17 (This First Busey Corp probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.11 suggesting First Busey Corp market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, First Busey is expected to follow. Additionally First Busey Corp has an alpha of 0.1362, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Busey Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Busey
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Busey Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Busey's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Busey Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Busey is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Busey's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Busey Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Busey within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
First Busey Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Busey for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Busey Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: First Busey Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates |
First Busey Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Busey's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Busey's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
First Busey Technical Analysis
First Busey's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Busey Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Busey Predictive Forecast Models
First Busey's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Busey's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Busey's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Busey Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Busey for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Busey Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: First Busey Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates |
Check out First Busey Backtesting, First Busey Valuation, First Busey Correlation, First Busey Hype Analysis, First Busey Volatility, First Busey History as well as First Busey Performance. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Busey. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Busey listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.065 | Dividend Share 0.97 | Earnings Share 1.08 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) |
The market value of First Busey Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Busey's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Busey's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Busey's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Busey's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Busey's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Busey is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Busey's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.