MFA FINANCIAL (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.97
| M4ZA Stock | 7.97 0.09 1.14% |
MFA |
MFA FINANCIAL Target Price Odds to finish over 7.97
The tendency of MFA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 7.97 | 90 days | 7.97 | about 60.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MFA FINANCIAL to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 60.38 (This MFA FINANCIAL NEW probability density function shows the probability of MFA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MFA FINANCIAL has a beta of 0.086. This indicates as returns on the market go up, MFA FINANCIAL average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MFA FINANCIAL NEW will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MFA FINANCIAL NEW has an alpha of 0.0627, implying that it can generate a 0.0627 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). MFA FINANCIAL Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for MFA FINANCIAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MFA FINANCIAL NEW. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MFA FINANCIAL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MFA FINANCIAL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MFA FINANCIAL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in MFA FINANCIAL NEW.MFA FINANCIAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MFA FINANCIAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MFA FINANCIAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MFA FINANCIAL NEW, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MFA FINANCIAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
MFA FINANCIAL Technical Analysis
MFA FINANCIAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MFA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MFA FINANCIAL NEW. In general, you should focus on analyzing MFA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MFA FINANCIAL Predictive Forecast Models
MFA FINANCIAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many MFA FINANCIAL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MFA FINANCIAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards MFA FINANCIAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, MFA FINANCIAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from MFA FINANCIAL options trading.