United Airlines Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 52.35
| UAL Stock | USD 52.35 0.49 0.93% |
Closest to current price United long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
United |
United Airlines Target Price Odds to finish over 52.35
The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 52.35 | 90 days | 52.35 | about 1.11 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Airlines to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.11 (This United Airlines Holdings probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.71 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, United Airlines will likely underperform. Additionally United Airlines Holdings has an alpha of 0.2879, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). United Airlines Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for United Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Airlines Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Airlines Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.71 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
United Airlines Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Airlines Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Continental goes ex dividend Monday |
United Airlines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 331.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.4 B |
United Airlines Technical Analysis
United Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Airlines Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
United Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
United Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many United Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about United Airlines Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about United Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Airlines Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Continental goes ex dividend Monday |
Check out United Airlines Backtesting, United Airlines Valuation, United Airlines Correlation, United Airlines Hype Analysis, United Airlines Volatility, United Airlines History as well as United Airlines Performance. Note that the United Airlines Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other United Airlines' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Complementary Tools for United Stock analysis
When running United Airlines' price analysis, check to measure United Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of United Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is United Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Airlines. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | Earnings Share 8.19 | Revenue Per Share 167.143 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.097 | Return On Assets 0.0477 |
The market value of United Airlines Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.