Alcoa Corp Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AA Stock | USD 35.94 0.14 0.39% |
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Alcoa Corp is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Alcoa Corp buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AA positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Alcoa Corp's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Alcoa Corp's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 34.35 | Target Price 35.27 | Hype Value 36.23 | Market Value 35.94 | Naive Value 34.92 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Alcoa Corp given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Alcoa Corp. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Alcoa Corp, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Alcoa |
Execute Alcoa Corp Buy or Sell Advice
The Alcoa recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alcoa Corp. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alcoa Corp or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alcoa Corp's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Hold | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Alcoa Corp Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Alcoa Corp had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company generated the yearly revenue of 10.55 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (773 M) with gross profit of 2.31 B. | |
| Alcoa Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 21st of March 2024 Alcoa Corp paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Morgan Stanley upgrades Alcoa stock on easing risks, cost reduction progress |
Alcoa Corp Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Alcoa Corp's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alcoa Corp daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alcoa Corp price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alcoa Corp returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Alcoa Corp.
| Mean Return | 0.46 | Value At Risk | -4.43 | Potential Upside | 5.35 | Standard Deviation | 3.07 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alcoa Corp historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Alcoa Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Alcoa Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alcoa Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Alcoa Corp's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Alcoa Corp's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Slate Path Capital Lp | 2023-12-31 | 2.5 M | Susquehanna International Group, Llp | 2023-12-31 | 2.4 M | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2023-12-31 | 2.4 M | Fisher Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 2.3 M | Pointstate Capital Lp | 2023-12-31 | 2.1 M | Capital Research Global Investors | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.5 M | D. E. Shaw & Co Lp | 2023-09-30 | 1.5 M | Arga Investment Management, Lp | 2024-03-31 | 1.5 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 21.6 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 18 M |
Alcoa Corp Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 137M | 122M | (639M) | (547M) | 243M | 255.2M | |
| Change In Cash | (233M) | 727M | 314M | (450M) | (427M) | (405.7M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 307M | 41M | 530M | 342M | (440M) | (418M) | |
| Depreciation | 871M | 640M | 263M | 617M | 632M | 580.8M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 888M | (207M) | 573M | 735M | 251M | 493.1M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 379M | 353M | 390M | 480M | 531M | 344.9M | |
| Net Income | (853M) | (14M) | 570M | 59M | (773M) | (811.7M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 883M | 1.6B | 1.9B | 1.5B | 1.0B | 1.1B | |
| Investments | (112M) | (12M) | (11M) | (495M) | (585M) | (555.8M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 425M | (7M) | (1M) | (799M) | (900K) | (855K) | |
| Change To Netincome | (59M) | (463M) | 1.1B | 309M | 278.1M | 345.7M | |
| Change Receivables | 283M | 16M | (414M) | (59M) | (53.1M) | (55.8M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 472M | 1M | 19M | 72M | 64.8M | 61.6M |
Alcoa Corp Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alcoa Corp or Metals & Mining sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alcoa Corp's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alcoa stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Alcoa Corp Volatility Alert
Alcoa Corp shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alcoa Corp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alcoa Corp's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Alcoa Corp Implied Volatility
Alcoa Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcoa Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcoa Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcoa Corp's options are near their expiration.
Alcoa Corp Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Alcoa Corp's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alcoa Corp's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alcoa Corp and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alcoa Corp or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Alcoa Corp to competition |
| Fundamentals | Alcoa Corp | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.14 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.0054 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.06) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.01) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 9.2 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 179.56 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.07 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 85.94 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 14.37 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 9.32 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.49 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.60 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 10.55 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 2.31 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 277 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (773 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.36 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 8.09 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.81 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.26 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.81 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 22.28 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 91 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.34 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (3.76) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | (0.29) X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 35.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 13.6 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 2.49 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 6.48 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 14.16 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (1.29 B) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 1.38 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 1440 shares by Tammi Jones of Alcoa Corp at 30.67 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Alcoa Corp Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Alcoa . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 157867.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.11) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.45 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) |
About Alcoa Corp Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Alcoa Corp? Buying financial instruments such as Alcoa Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 1.7B | 1.8B | 1.8B | 1.6B | Total Assets | 15.0B | 14.8B | 14.2B | 12.7B |
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Check out Alcoa Corp Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade Alcoa Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcoa Stock guide.Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis
When running Alcoa Corp's price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alcoa Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.81 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share (3.76) | Revenue Per Share 58.771 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcoa Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.