The Allstate Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ALL Stock | USD 170.07 2.27 1.32% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding The Allstate is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Allstate buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Allstate positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Allstate's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Allstate's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 141.52 | Target Price 131.67 | Hype Value 170.41 | Market Value 170.07 | Naive Value 175.58 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell The Allstate given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Allstate. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for The Allstate, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Allstate |
Execute Allstate Buy or Sell Advice
The Allstate recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on The Allstate. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in The Allstate or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Allstate's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Barely shadows the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Allstate Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| The company has 7.94 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.45, which is OK given its current industry classification. Allstate has a current ratio of 0.4, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Allstate until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Allstate's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Allstate sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Allstate to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Allstate's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 57.09 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (213 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 6.44 B. | |
| Over 80.0% of Allstate shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 1st of April 2024 Allstate paid $ 0.92 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from independent.co.uk: Surging auto insurance rates squeeze drivers, fuel inflation |
Allstate Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Allstate's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Allstate's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Allstate daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use The Allstate price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Allstate returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Allstate.
| Mean Return | 0.13 | Value At Risk | -1.72 | Potential Upside | 1.98 | Standard Deviation | 1.17 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Allstate historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Allstate Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Allstate is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading The Allstate backward and forwards among themselves. Allstate's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Allstate's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Diamond Hill Capital Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 3.9 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 3.8 M | Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss Llc | 2023-12-31 | 3.8 M | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2023-12-31 | 3.6 M | Allspring Global Investments Holdings, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 3.6 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 3.4 M | Macquarie Group Ltd | 2023-12-31 | 3.4 M | Deutsche Bank Ag | 2023-12-31 | 2.7 M | Legal & General Group Plc | 2023-12-31 | 2.7 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 32.2 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 18.9 M |
Allstate Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | (161M) | 39M | 452M | (27M) | (14M) | (13.3M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 4.7B | 5.2B | 4.8B | 4.7B | 4.0B | 3.9B | |
| Depreciation | 647M | 686M | 1.1B | 847M | 704M | 739.2M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (1.0B) | (773M) | 2.6B | 5.7B | 309M | 293.6M | |
| Dividends Paid | 787M | 776M | 999M | 1.0B | 1.0B | 667.0M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 433M | 308M | 345M | 420M | 267M | 256.0M | |
| Net Income | 4.8B | 5.6B | 1.6B | (1.4B) | (213M) | (202.4M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 338M | 377M | 763M | 736M | 722M | 466.7M | |
| Change To Netincome | (1.1B) | (722M) | 3.2B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 850.0M | |
| Investments | (350M) | (7.5B) | 3.6B | (4.2B) | (2.3B) | (2.2B) | |
| Change Receivables | 21M | (14M) | (2.1B) | (630M) | (724.5M) | (760.7M) |
Allstate Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Allstate or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Allstate's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Allstate stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Allstate Volatility Alert
The Allstate has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.35 and kurtosis of 0.77. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Allstate's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Allstate's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Allstate Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Allstate's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Allstate's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Allstate and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Allstate or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Allstate's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allstate by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Allstate to competition |
| Fundamentals | Allstate | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.0122 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0012 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.13 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 49.54 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 263.76 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.57 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 79.53 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.06 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 41.55 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.79 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.77 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 57.09 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 6.44 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (213 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (213 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 4.83 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 18.21 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 7.94 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.45 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.41 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 60.19 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 4.23 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.11 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (1.21) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 3.40 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 185.94 | |
| Number Of Employees | 53 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.51 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 44.86 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 103.36 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 49.72 B | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.02 % |
Allstate Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Allstate . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0169 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.79) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 169.48 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 169.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 2.89 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.54) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.27) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.73 |
About Allstate Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell The Allstate? Buying financial instruments such as Allstate Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Total Stockholder Equity | 25.2B | 17.5B | 17.8B | 20.5B | Total Assets | 99.4B | 98.0B | 103.4B | 122.9B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Allstate in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Allstate Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for Allstate Stock analysis
When running Allstate's price analysis, check to measure Allstate's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allstate is operating at the current time. Most of Allstate's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allstate's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allstate's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allstate to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Allstate's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allstate. If investors know Allstate will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allstate listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | Dividend Share 3.56 | Earnings Share (1.21) | Revenue Per Share 217.501 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.087 |
The market value of Allstate is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allstate that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allstate's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allstate's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allstate's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allstate's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allstate's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allstate is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allstate's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.