Alpargatas (Brazil) Market Value
| ALPA3 Stock | BRL 7.50 0.27 3.47% |
| Symbol | Alpargatas |
Alpargatas 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alpargatas' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alpargatas.
| 04/21/2025 |
| 07/20/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alpargatas on April 21, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alpargatas SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alpargatas over 90 days. Alpargatas is related to or competes with Vulcabras Azaleia, Samsonite International, Alpargatas, Braskem SA, Grendene, and Marcopolo. Alpargatas S.A. manufactures and sells footwear, clothing, and accessories in Brazil More
Alpargatas Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alpargatas' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alpargatas SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.82) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.23 |
Alpargatas Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alpargatas' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alpargatas' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alpargatas historical prices to predict the future Alpargatas' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0186 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1056 |
Alpargatas SA Backtested Returns
Currently, Alpargatas SA is somewhat reliable. Alpargatas SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0325, which signifies that the company had a 0.0325 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Alpargatas SA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Alpargatas' Downside Deviation of 2.77, risk adjusted performance of 0.0186, and Mean Deviation of 1.89 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0866%. Alpargatas has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.23, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Alpargatas' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Alpargatas is expected to be smaller as well. Alpargatas SA right now shows a risk of 2.66%. Please confirm Alpargatas SA total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to decide if Alpargatas SA will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.79 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Alpargatas SA has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alpargatas time series from 21st of April 2025 to 5th of June 2025 and 5th of June 2025 to 20th of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alpargatas SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.79 indicates that around 79.0% of current Alpargatas price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.79 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.61 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.25 |
Alpargatas SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alpargatas stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alpargatas' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alpargatas returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alpargatas has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alpargatas regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alpargatas stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alpargatas stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alpargatas stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alpargatas Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alpargatas' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alpargatas stock have on its future price. Alpargatas autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alpargatas autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alpargatas stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alpargatas SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Alpargatas Stock Analysis
When running Alpargatas' price analysis, check to measure Alpargatas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alpargatas is operating at the current time. Most of Alpargatas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alpargatas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alpargatas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alpargatas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.