FirstGroup Plc (Germany) Market Value
| FGR Stock | EUR 2.53 0.04 1.56% |
| Symbol | FirstGroup |
FirstGroup Plc 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to FirstGroup Plc's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of FirstGroup Plc.
| 04/24/2025 |
| 07/23/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in FirstGroup Plc on April 24, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding FirstGroup plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in FirstGroup Plc over 90 days. FirstGroup Plc is related to or competes with URBAN OUTFITTERS, Mitsui Chemicals, Urban Outfitters, China Resources, Boston Beer, American Eagle, and Silicon Motion. The companys First Student segment provides student transportation services through a fleet of approximately 44,000 yell... More
FirstGroup Plc Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure FirstGroup Plc's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess FirstGroup plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1521 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.89) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.43 |
FirstGroup Plc Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for FirstGroup Plc's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as FirstGroup Plc's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use FirstGroup Plc historical prices to predict the future FirstGroup Plc's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2222 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4769 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0985 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.255 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (190.58) |
FirstGroup plc Backtested Returns
FirstGroup Plc appears to be relatively risky, given 3 months investment horizon. FirstGroup plc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.25, which denotes the company had a 0.25 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By reviewing FirstGroup Plc's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.51% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize FirstGroup Plc's Downside Deviation of 1.21, mean deviation of 1.21, and Coefficient Of Variation of 416.44 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, FirstGroup Plc holds a performance score of 19. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0025, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning FirstGroup Plc are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, FirstGroup Plc is likely to outperform the market. Please check FirstGroup Plc's sortino ratio, potential upside, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether FirstGroup Plc's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.55 |
Modest predictability
FirstGroup plc has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between FirstGroup Plc time series from 24th of April 2025 to 8th of June 2025 and 8th of June 2025 to 23rd of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of FirstGroup plc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current FirstGroup Plc price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
FirstGroup plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is FirstGroup Plc stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting FirstGroup Plc's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of FirstGroup Plc returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that FirstGroup Plc has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
FirstGroup Plc regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If FirstGroup Plc stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if FirstGroup Plc stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in FirstGroup Plc stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
FirstGroup Plc Lagged Returns
When evaluating FirstGroup Plc's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of FirstGroup Plc stock have on its future price. FirstGroup Plc autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, FirstGroup Plc autocorrelation shows the relationship between FirstGroup Plc stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in FirstGroup plc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in FirstGroup Stock
FirstGroup Plc financial ratios help investors to determine whether FirstGroup Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FirstGroup with respect to the benefits of owning FirstGroup Plc security.