Kencana Energi (Indonesia) Market Value
| KEEN Stock | IDR 700.00 5.00 0.72% |
| Symbol | Kencana |
Kencana Energi 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Kencana Energi's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Kencana Energi.
| 04/04/2024 |
| 05/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Kencana Energi on April 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Kencana Energi Lestari or generate 0.0% return on investment in Kencana Energi over 30 days. Kencana Energi is related to or competes with PT Indonesia, Cikarang Listrindo, Jasa Armada, Pelita Samudera, and Resource Alam. PT Kencana Energi Lestari Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a renewable energy company in Indonesia More
Kencana Energi Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Kencana Energi's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Kencana Energi Lestari upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.56) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.32 |
Kencana Energi Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Kencana Energi's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Kencana Energi's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Kencana Energi historical prices to predict the future Kencana Energi's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.36) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.61) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kencana Energi's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Kencana Energi Lestari Backtested Returns
Kencana Energi Lestari has Sharpe Ratio of -0.1, which conveys that the firm had a -0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Kencana Energi exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Kencana Energi's Mean Deviation of 1.34, risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Standard Deviation of 1.95 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.24, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Kencana Energi's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Kencana Energi is expected to be smaller as well. Kencana Energi Lestari has an expected return of -0.21%. Please make sure to verify Kencana Energi Lestari value at risk, skewness, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if Kencana Energi Lestari performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.79 |
Good predictability
Kencana Energi Lestari has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Kencana Energi time series from 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024 and 19th of April 2024 to 4th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Kencana Energi Lestari price movement. The serial correlation of 0.79 indicates that around 79.0% of current Kencana Energi price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.79 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.66 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 128.47 |
Kencana Energi Lestari lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Kencana Energi stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Kencana Energi's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Kencana Energi returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Kencana Energi has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Kencana Energi regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Kencana Energi stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Kencana Energi stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Kencana Energi stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Kencana Energi Lagged Returns
When evaluating Kencana Energi's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Kencana Energi stock have on its future price. Kencana Energi autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Kencana Energi autocorrelation shows the relationship between Kencana Energi stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Kencana Energi Lestari.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Kencana Energi in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Kencana Energi's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Kencana Energi options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Kencana Stock analysis
When running Kencana Energi's price analysis, check to measure Kencana Energi's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kencana Energi is operating at the current time. Most of Kencana Energi's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kencana Energi's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kencana Energi's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kencana Energi to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Kencana Energi technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.