Aura Minerals Stock Market Value
| ORA Stock | CAD 10.45 0.22 2.15% |
| Symbol | Aura |
Aura Minerals 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aura Minerals' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aura Minerals.
| 03/31/2024 |
| 04/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aura Minerals on March 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aura Minerals or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aura Minerals over 30 days. Aura Minerals is related to or competes with Centamin PLC, Entree Resources, Wesdome Gold, Eastern Platinum, and Platinum Group. Aura Minerals Inc., a gold and copper production company, focuses on the development and operation of gold and base meta... More
Aura Minerals Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aura Minerals' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aura Minerals upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1245 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.42 |
Aura Minerals Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aura Minerals' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aura Minerals' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aura Minerals historical prices to predict the future Aura Minerals' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1065 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2471 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1396 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1243 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.361 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aura Minerals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aura Minerals Backtested Returns
Aura Minerals appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Aura Minerals secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which signifies that the company had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Aura Minerals, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Aura Minerals' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1065, downside deviation of 1.9, and Mean Deviation of 1.38 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Aura Minerals holds a performance score of 12. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.79, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Aura Minerals' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Aura Minerals is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Aura Minerals' skewness, day typical price, and the relationship between the downside variance and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Aura Minerals' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.66 |
Very good reverse predictability
Aura Minerals has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aura Minerals time series from 31st of March 2024 to 15th of April 2024 and 15th of April 2024 to 30th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aura Minerals price movement. The serial correlation of -0.66 indicates that around 66.0% of current Aura Minerals price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.66 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.02 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.08 |
Aura Minerals lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aura Minerals stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aura Minerals' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aura Minerals returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aura Minerals has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aura Minerals regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aura Minerals stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aura Minerals stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aura Minerals stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aura Minerals Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aura Minerals' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aura Minerals stock have on its future price. Aura Minerals autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aura Minerals autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aura Minerals stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aura Minerals.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aura Minerals in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aura Minerals' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aura Minerals options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Aura Stock analysis
When running Aura Minerals' price analysis, check to measure Aura Minerals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aura Minerals is operating at the current time. Most of Aura Minerals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aura Minerals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aura Minerals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aura Minerals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Aura Minerals technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.