Supra Boga (Indonesia) Market Value
| RANC Stock | IDR 585.00 15.00 2.50% |
| Symbol | Supra |
Supra Boga 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Supra Boga's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Supra Boga.
| 05/09/2022 |
| 04/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Supra Boga on May 9, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Supra Boga Lestari or generate 0.0% return on investment in Supra Boga over 720 days. Supra Boga is related to or competes with Astra International, Telkom Indonesia, and Kalbe Farma. PT Supra Boga Lestari Tbk operates supermarkets in Indonesia More
Supra Boga Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Supra Boga's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Supra Boga Lestari upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.03 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.62) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.48 |
Supra Boga Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Supra Boga's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Supra Boga's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Supra Boga historical prices to predict the future Supra Boga's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.51) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.8465 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Supra Boga's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Supra Boga Lestari Backtested Returns
Supra Boga Lestari owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0564, which indicates the firm had a -0.0564% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Supra Boga Lestari exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Supra Boga's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03), variance of 7.26, and Coefficient Of Variation of (1,703) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.2, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Supra Boga are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Supra Boga is likely to outperform the market. Supra Boga Lestari has an expected return of -0.16%. Please make sure to validate Supra Boga maximum drawdown, potential upside, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Supra Boga Lestari performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.40 |
Average predictability
Supra Boga Lestari has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Supra Boga time series from 9th of May 2022 to 4th of May 2023 and 4th of May 2023 to 28th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Supra Boga Lestari price movement. The serial correlation of 0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current Supra Boga price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.4 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.47 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1581.31 |
Supra Boga Lestari lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Supra Boga stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Supra Boga's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Supra Boga returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Supra Boga has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Supra Boga regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Supra Boga stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Supra Boga stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Supra Boga stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Supra Boga Lagged Returns
When evaluating Supra Boga's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Supra Boga stock have on its future price. Supra Boga autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Supra Boga autocorrelation shows the relationship between Supra Boga stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Supra Boga Lestari.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Supra Boga in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Supra Boga's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Supra Boga options trading.
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Check out Supra Boga Correlation, Supra Boga Volatility and Supra Boga Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Supra Boga. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Supra Stock analysis
When running Supra Boga's price analysis, check to measure Supra Boga's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Supra Boga is operating at the current time. Most of Supra Boga's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Supra Boga's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Supra Boga's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Supra Boga to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Supra Boga technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.