Megashort 20 Year Etf Market Value
| TLTD Etf | 20.55 0.04 0.20% |
| Symbol | MegaShort |
MegaShort 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MegaShort's etf what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MegaShort.
| 04/21/2025 |
| 07/20/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in MegaShort on April 21, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding MegaShort 20 Year or generate 0.0% return on investment in MegaShort over 90 days.
MegaShort Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MegaShort's etf current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MegaShort 20 Year upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.09 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.84) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.2 |
MegaShort Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MegaShort's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MegaShort's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MegaShort historical prices to predict the future MegaShort's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0389 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0773 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.98) |
MegaShort 20 Year Backtested Returns
As of now, MegaShort Etf is not too volatile. MegaShort 20 Year has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0351, which conveys that the entity had a 0.0351 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for MegaShort, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the etf. Please verify MegaShort's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0389, mean deviation of 1.72, and Downside Deviation of 2.35 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.076%. The etf secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0699, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning MegaShort are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, MegaShort is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.44 |
Average predictability
MegaShort 20 Year has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MegaShort time series from 21st of April 2025 to 5th of June 2025 and 5th of June 2025 to 20th of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MegaShort 20 Year price movement. The serial correlation of 0.44 indicates that just about 44.0% of current MegaShort price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.44 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.94 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.1 |
MegaShort 20 Year lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is MegaShort etf's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MegaShort's etf expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MegaShort returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MegaShort has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the etf is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
MegaShort regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MegaShort etf is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MegaShort etf is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MegaShort etf over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
MegaShort Lagged Returns
When evaluating MegaShort's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MegaShort etf have on its future price. MegaShort autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MegaShort autocorrelation shows the relationship between MegaShort etf current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MegaShort 20 Year.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with MegaShort
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if MegaShort position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in MegaShort will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against MegaShort Etf
| 0.64 | XIC | iShares Core SPTSX | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | ZCN | BMO SPTSX Capped | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | ZEB | BMO SPTSX Equal | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | XSP | iShares Core SP | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | XIU | iShares SPTSX 60 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to MegaShort could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace MegaShort when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back MegaShort - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling MegaShort 20 Year to buy it.
The correlation of MegaShort is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as MegaShort moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if MegaShort 20 Year moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for MegaShort can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.