Orion Group Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| ORN Stock | USD 7.48 0.11 1.45% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
40
Oversold | Overbought |
Orion Group Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Orion Group shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Orion Group's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Orion Group and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Orion Group's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Orion Group Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Orion Group's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.629 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.26 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.56 | Wall Street Target Price 9.83 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Orion Group based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Orion stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Orion Group over a specific investment horizon. Using Orion Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Orion Group Holdings from the perspective of Orion Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Orion Group using Orion Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Orion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Orion Group's stock price.
Orion Group Implied Volatility | 53.79 |
Orion Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Orion Group Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Orion Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Orion Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Orion Group's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Orion Group. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Orion Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Orion because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Orion Group after-hype prediction price | USD 7.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Orion |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Orion Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Orion Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Orion Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Orion Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Orion Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Orion Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Orion Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Orion Group's historical news coverage. Orion Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.07 and 11.89, respectively. We have considered Orion Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Orion Group is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Orion Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Orion Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Orion Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Orion Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Orion Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 4.41 | 0.10 | 0.61 | 10 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.48 | 7.48 | 0.00 |
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Orion Group Hype Timeline
On the 5th of May Orion Group Holdings is traded for 7.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.61. Orion is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.52%. %. The volatility of related hype on Orion Group is about 377.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.87. About 67.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Orion Group was now reported as 3.53. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.37. Orion Group Holdings recorded a loss per share of 0.35. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 40:1 split on the 21st of December 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Orion Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Orion Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Orion Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Orion Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Orion Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Orion Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MYRG | MYR Group | (0.21) | 9 per month | 2.92 | (0.02) | 3.25 | (5.31) | 12.73 | |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.13 | 8 per month | 0.84 | 0.23 | 2.93 | (1.57) | 7.39 | |
| ROAD | Construction Partners | (1.41) | 10 per month | 2.34 | 0.06 | 3.22 | (3.06) | 10.85 | |
| GLDD | Great Lakes Dredge | (0.22) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.65 | (3.74) | 25.40 | |
| KBR | KBR Inc | 0.33 | 10 per month | 0.41 | 0.26 | 2.29 | (1.48) | 5.61 | |
| EME | EMCOR Group | (2.73) | 11 per month | 0.52 | 0.35 | 3.09 | (1.78) | 12.73 | |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA | (9.28) | 8 per month | 1.60 | 0.20 | 4.03 | (3.02) | 17.56 | |
| PRIM | Primoris Services | 0.04 | 11 per month | 1.50 | 0.23 | 4.32 | (1.83) | 12.86 | |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Co | 0.06 | 9 per month | 1.47 | 0.09 | 5.28 | (2.93) | 27.04 | |
| TPC | Tutor Perini | (0.12) | 10 per month | 2.05 | 0.21 | 7.76 | (3.88) | 34.16 | |
| SLND | Southland Holdings | 0.55 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.88 | (6.63) | 22.72 |
Orion Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Orion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Orion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Orion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Orion Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Orion Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Orion Group Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Orion Group based on analysis of Orion Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Orion Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Orion Group's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 106.87 | 98.5 | 117.58 | 71.52 | PTB Ratio | 0.78 | 0.54 | 1.32 | 1.77 |
Story Coverage note for Orion Group
The number of cover stories for Orion Group depends on current market conditions and Orion Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Orion Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Orion Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Orion Group Short Properties
Orion Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Orion Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Orion Group Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Orion Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Orion Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 30.9 M |
Check out Orion Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Complementary Tools for Orion Stock analysis
When running Orion Group's price analysis, check to measure Orion Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Orion Group is operating at the current time. Most of Orion Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Orion Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Orion Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Orion Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Orion Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Orion Group. If investors know Orion will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Orion Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.629 | Earnings Share (0.35) | Revenue Per Share 21.987 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 | Return On Assets (0.0006) |
The market value of Orion Group Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Orion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Orion Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Orion Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Orion Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Orion Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Orion Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Orion Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Orion Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.