Prestige Brand Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| PBH Stock | USD 71.76 0.02 0.03% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
38
Oversold | Overbought |
Prestige Brand Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Prestige Brand shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Prestige Brand's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Prestige Brand and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Prestige Brand's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Prestige Brand Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Prestige Brand's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.019 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.14 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.33 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.63 | Wall Street Target Price 75.6 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Prestige Brand based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Prestige stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Prestige Brand over a specific investment horizon. Using Prestige Brand hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Prestige Brand Holdings from the perspective of Prestige Brand response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Prestige Brand using Prestige Brand's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Prestige using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Prestige Brand's stock price.
Prestige Brand Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Prestige Brand's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Prestige. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Prestige Brand stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Prestige Brand may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Prestige Brand and may potentially protect profits, hedge Prestige Brand with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 63.1044 | Short Percent 0.0515 | Short Ratio 7.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 70.9054 |
Prestige Brand Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Prestige Brand's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Prestige. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Prestige can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Prestige Brand Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Prestige Brand's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Prestige Brand.
Prestige Brand Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Prestige Brand's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Prestige Brand Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Prestige Brand's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Prestige Brand stock will not fluctuate a lot when Prestige Brand's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Prestige Brand. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Prestige Brand to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Prestige because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Prestige Brand after-hype prediction price | USD 71.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Prestige contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Prestige Brand Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Prestige Brand trading at USD 71.76, that is roughly USD 0.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Prestige Brand's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Prestige Brand Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Prestige |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Prestige Brand's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Prestige Brand After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Prestige Brand at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Prestige Brand or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Prestige Brand, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Prestige Brand Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Prestige Brand's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Prestige Brand's historical news coverage. Prestige Brand's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 69.63 and 72.85, respectively. We have considered Prestige Brand's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Prestige Brand is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Prestige Brand Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Prestige Brand Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Prestige Brand is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Prestige Brand backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Prestige Brand, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.61 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
71.76 | 71.24 | 0.70 |
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Prestige Brand Hype Timeline
On the 30th of April Prestige Brand Holdings is traded for 71.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Prestige is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 71.24. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.7%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Prestige Brand is about 670.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 71.82. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Prestige Brand was at this time reported as 32.24. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.86. Prestige Brand Holdings recorded a loss per share of 1.61. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of December 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Prestige Brand Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Prestige Brand Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Prestige Brand's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Prestige Brand's future price movements. Getting to know how Prestige Brand's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Prestige Brand may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMGN | Amgen Inc | 2.38 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.35 | (2.31) | 9.67 | |
| FHAGX | Fidelity Freedom Blend | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 0.42 | (0.52) | 1.45 | |
| RIDGX | Income Fund Of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.53 | (0.06) | 0.76 | (1.09) | 2.55 | |
| HPQ | HP Inc | (0.26) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.81 | (2.39) | 7.21 | |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 1.54 | 9 per month | 1.01 | 0.08 | 1.41 | (1.81) | 5.97 | |
| AL | Air Lease | (0.82) | 12 per month | 1.51 | 0.12 | 2.61 | (2.79) | 7.30 | |
| WMT | Walmart | (1.16) | 8 per month | 0.57 | 0.08 | 1.39 | (1.40) | 4.98 |
Prestige Brand Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Prestige price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Prestige using various technical indicators. When you analyze Prestige charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Prestige Brand Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Prestige Brand stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Prestige Brand Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Prestige Brand based on analysis of Prestige Brand hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Prestige Brand's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Prestige Brand's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 46.79 | 54.06 | 48.65 | 38.73 | PTB Ratio | 1.69 | 2.16 | 2.48 | 3.75 |
Story Coverage note for Prestige Brand
The number of cover stories for Prestige Brand depends on current market conditions and Prestige Brand's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Prestige Brand is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Prestige Brand's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Prestige Brand Short Properties
Prestige Brand's future price predictability will typically decrease when Prestige Brand's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Prestige Brand Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Prestige Brand's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Prestige Brand's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 58.5 M |
Check out Prestige Brand Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Prestige Brand Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Prestige Brand's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Complementary Tools for Prestige Stock analysis
When running Prestige Brand's price analysis, check to measure Prestige Brand's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Prestige Brand is operating at the current time. Most of Prestige Brand's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Prestige Brand's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Prestige Brand's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Prestige Brand to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Prestige Brand's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Prestige Brand. If investors know Prestige will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Prestige Brand listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.019 | Earnings Share (1.61) | Revenue Per Share 22.8 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.026 | Return On Assets 0.0616 |
The market value of Prestige Brand Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Prestige that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Prestige Brand's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Prestige Brand's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Prestige Brand's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Prestige Brand's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Prestige Brand's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Prestige Brand is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Prestige Brand's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.