First Majestic Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AG Stock | 33.93 1.62 4.56% |
First Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of First Majestic's share price is above 70 as of today. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using First Majestic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Majestic Silver from the perspective of First Majestic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Majestic Silver on the next trading day is expected to be 34.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.28. First Majestic after-hype prediction price | CAD 33.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
First |
First Majestic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Majestic Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Majestic Silver on the next trading day is expected to be 34.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92, mean absolute percentage error of 1.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Majestic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Majestic Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Majestic | First Majestic Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Majestic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Majestic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Majestic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.45 and 39.03, respectively. We have considered First Majestic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Majestic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Majestic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7421 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4516 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9201 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0405 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 54.285 |
Predictive Modules for First Majestic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Majestic Silver. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Majestic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Majestic After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Majestic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Majestic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Majestic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Majestic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Majestic's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Majestic's historical news coverage. First Majestic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.64 and 38.22, respectively. We have considered First Majestic's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Majestic is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Majestic Silver is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Majestic Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Majestic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Majestic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Majestic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.12 | 4.29 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
33.93 | 33.93 | 0.00 |
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First Majestic Hype Timeline
First Majestic Silver is presently traded for 33.93on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. First is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 1.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Majestic is about 17875.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.90. About 53.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of First Majestic was presently reported as 7.28. The company last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Majestic to cross-verify your projections.First Majestic Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Majestic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Majestic's future price movements. Getting to know how First Majestic's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Majestic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HBM | HudBay Minerals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.04 | 0.28 | 5.44 | (2.67) | 11.89 | |
| OR | Osisko Gold Ro | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.23 | 4.09 | (2.84) | 8.42 | |
| NGD | New Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.38 | 0.20 | 6.80 | (3.86) | 14.65 | |
| TFPM | Triple Flag Precious | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | 0.16 | 4.15 | (3.14) | 11.36 | |
| CGG | China Gold International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.67 | 0.24 | 5.57 | (4.08) | 15.34 | |
| IMG | IAMGold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.23 | 0.27 | 5.59 | (4.61) | 14.96 | |
| BTO | B2Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.30 | 0.11 | 4.60 | (4.09) | 12.91 | |
| ARTG | Artemis Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.72 | 0.11 | 4.28 | (5.33) | 12.17 | |
| CS | Capstone Mining Corp | (0.24) | 7 per month | 2.70 | 0.17 | 7.47 | (5.97) | 15.37 | |
| ELD | Eldorado Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.37 | 4.82 | (2.84) | 11.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Majestic
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Majestic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Majestic's price trends.First Majestic Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Majestic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Majestic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Majestic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Majestic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Majestic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Majestic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Majestic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Majestic Silver entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 435358.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.36) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 34.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.41) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.62) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 70.34 |
First Majestic Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Majestic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Majestic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.29 | |||
| Variance | 18.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.89 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Majestic
The number of cover stories for First Majestic depends on current market conditions and First Majestic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Majestic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Majestic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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First Majestic Short Properties
First Majestic's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Majestic's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Majestic Silver often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Majestic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Majestic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 287.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 251.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Majestic to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.