Agios Pharm Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AGIO Stock | USD 28.54 0.12 0.42% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Agios Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 28.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.65. Agios Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Agios Pharm's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Agios Pharm's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agios Pharm fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of Agios Pharm's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.98) | EPS Estimate Current Year (7.01) | EPS Estimate Next Year (6.59) | Wall Street Target Price 36.75 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.90) |
Using Agios Pharm hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Agios Pharm from the perspective of Agios Pharm response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Agios Pharm using Agios Pharm's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Agios using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Agios Pharm's stock price.
Agios Pharm Short Interest
An investor who is long Agios Pharm may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Agios Pharm and may potentially protect profits, hedge Agios Pharm with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 34.0602 | Short Percent 0.1225 | Short Ratio 4.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.1 M | 50 Day MA 29.4178 |
Agios Pharm Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Agios Pharm's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Agios. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Agios can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Agios Pharm. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Agios Pharm Implied Volatility | 0.84 |
Agios Pharm's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Agios Pharm stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Agios Pharm's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Agios Pharm stock will not fluctuate a lot when Agios Pharm's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Agios Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 28.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.65. Agios Pharm after-hype prediction price | USD 28.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agios Pharm to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Agios contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Agios Pharm will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0525% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Agios Pharm trading at USD 28.54, that is roughly USD 0.015 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Agios Pharm's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Agios Pharm options at the current volatility level of 0.84%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Agios Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Agios Pharm's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Agios Pharm's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Agios Pharm stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Agios Pharm's open interest, investors have to compare it to Agios Pharm's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Agios Pharm is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Agios. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Agios Pharm Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Agios price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Agios using various technical indicators. When you analyze Agios charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agios Pharm Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Agios Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 28.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 10.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agios Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agios Pharm's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agios Pharm Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Agios Pharm | Agios Pharm Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Agios Pharm Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agios Pharm's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agios Pharm's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.00 and 36.08, respectively. We have considered Agios Pharm's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agios Pharm stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agios Pharm stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5901 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2482 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1442 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0418 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 68.65 |
Predictive Modules for Agios Pharm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agios Pharm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agios Pharm After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Agios Pharm at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Agios Pharm or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Agios Pharm, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Agios Pharm Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Agios Pharm's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Agios Pharm's historical news coverage. Agios Pharm's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.08 and 36.16, respectively. We have considered Agios Pharm's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Agios Pharm is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Agios Pharm is based on 3 months time horizon.
Agios Pharm Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Agios Pharm is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Agios Pharm backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Agios Pharm, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 7.54 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
28.54 | 28.62 | 0.28 |
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Agios Pharm Hype Timeline
Agios Pharm is presently traded for 28.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Agios is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Agios Pharm is about 6614.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.57. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 36.5 M. Net Income was 673.73 M with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (295.22 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agios Pharm to cross-verify your projections.Agios Pharm Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Agios Pharm's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Agios Pharm's future price movements. Getting to know how Agios Pharm's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Agios Pharm may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DNLI | Denali Therapeutics | 0.03 | 20 per month | 3.17 | 0.06 | 6.50 | (5.65) | 23.32 | |
| RXRX | Recursion Pharmaceuticals | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 7.59 | (6.85) | 17.21 | |
| BEAM | Beam Therapeutics | (0.19) | 12 per month | 3.67 | 0.02 | 8.12 | (6.30) | 31.78 | |
| RCUS | Arcus Biosciences | (0.52) | 10 per month | 4.11 | 0.09 | 6.88 | (6.93) | 21.81 | |
| ETNB | 89bio Inc | (0.01) | 6 per month | 1.83 | 0.09 | 3.02 | (4.66) | 86.02 | |
| COGT | Cogent Biosciences | (0.65) | 7 per month | 2.40 | 0.12 | 5.94 | (4.91) | 123.47 | |
| IBRX | Immunitybio | 0.81 | 9 per month | 4.07 | 0.21 | 11.16 | (7.49) | 33.68 | |
| GLPG | Galapagos NV ADR | 0.82 | 3 per month | 2.06 | (0.03) | 2.62 | (2.54) | 8.61 | |
| SRPT | Sarepta Therapeutics | (0.33) | 24 per month | 7.28 | (0) | 6.90 | (6.75) | 37.95 | |
| LQDA | Liquidia Technologies | 0.99 | 9 per month | 3.32 | 0.20 | 8.00 | (4.84) | 19.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Agios Pharm
For every potential investor in Agios, whether a beginner or expert, Agios Pharm's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agios Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agios. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agios Pharm's price trends.Agios Pharm Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agios Pharm stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agios Pharm could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agios Pharm by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agios Pharm Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agios Pharm stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agios Pharm shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agios Pharm stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agios Pharm entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Agios Pharm Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agios Pharm's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agios Pharm's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agios stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.34 | |||
| Variance | 53.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Agios Pharm
The number of cover stories for Agios Pharm depends on current market conditions and Agios Pharm's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Agios Pharm is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Agios Pharm's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Agios Pharm Short Properties
Agios Pharm's future price predictability will typically decrease when Agios Pharm's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Agios Pharm often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Agios Pharm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agios Pharm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 893.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agios Pharm to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Agios Stock, please use our How to Invest in Agios Pharm guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agios Pharm. If investors know Agios will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agios Pharm listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (7.01) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.437 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Agios Pharm is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agios that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agios Pharm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agios Pharm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agios Pharm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agios Pharm's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agios Pharm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agios Pharm is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agios Pharm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.