Agios Pharm Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AGIO Stock | USD 28.31 0.36 1.26% |
Agios Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Agios Pharm's share price is approaching 43. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Agios Pharm, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Agios Pharm hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Agios Pharm from the perspective of Agios Pharm response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Agios Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 28.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.91. Agios Pharm after-hype prediction price | USD 28.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agios Pharm to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Agios Stock, please use our How to Invest in Agios Pharm guide.Agios Pharm Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Agios price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Agios using various technical indicators. When you analyze Agios charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agios Pharm Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Agios Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 28.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34, mean absolute percentage error of 11.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agios Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agios Pharm's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agios Pharm Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Agios Pharm | Agios Pharm Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Agios Pharm Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agios Pharm's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agios Pharm's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.73 and 35.89, respectively. We have considered Agios Pharm's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agios Pharm stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agios Pharm stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8942 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3269 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3374 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0499 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 78.905 |
Predictive Modules for Agios Pharm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agios Pharm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agios Pharm After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Agios Pharm at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Agios Pharm or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Agios Pharm, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Agios Pharm Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Agios Pharm's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Agios Pharm's historical news coverage. Agios Pharm's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.73 and 35.89, respectively. We have considered Agios Pharm's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Agios Pharm is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Agios Pharm is based on 3 months time horizon.
Agios Pharm Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Agios Pharm is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Agios Pharm backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Agios Pharm, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 7.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.31 | 28.31 | 0.00 |
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Agios Pharm Hype Timeline
Agios Pharm is presently traded for 28.31. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Agios is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on Agios Pharm is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.31. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.3. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Agios Pharm recorded a loss per share of 7.01. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agios Pharm to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Agios Stock, please use our How to Invest in Agios Pharm guide.Agios Pharm Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Agios Pharm's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Agios Pharm's future price movements. Getting to know how Agios Pharm's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Agios Pharm may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DNLI | Denali Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.99 | 0.12 | 6.50 | (4.21) | 23.32 | |
| RXRX | Recursion Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.59 | (5.83) | 17.21 | |
| BEAM | Beam Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.34 | 0.06 | 8.12 | (6.23) | 31.78 | |
| RCUS | Arcus Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.33 | 0.05 | 5.64 | (6.53) | 19.63 | |
| ETNB | 89bio Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| COGT | Cogent Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.27 | 0.13 | 5.51 | (4.44) | 126.24 | |
| IBRX | Immunitybio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.26 | 0.21 | 11.16 | (7.49) | 51.87 | |
| GLPG | Galapagos NV ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.05 | 2.62 | (1.87) | 7.08 | |
| SRPT | Sarepta Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.38 | (0.01) | 7.34 | (6.75) | 35.57 | |
| LQDA | Liquidia Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.02 | 0.24 | 8.00 | (4.45) | 19.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Agios Pharm
For every potential investor in Agios, whether a beginner or expert, Agios Pharm's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agios Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agios. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agios Pharm's price trends.Agios Pharm Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agios Pharm stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agios Pharm could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agios Pharm by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agios Pharm Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agios Pharm stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agios Pharm shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agios Pharm stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agios Pharm entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Agios Pharm Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agios Pharm's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agios Pharm's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agios stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.58 | |||
| Variance | 57.5 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Agios Pharm
The number of cover stories for Agios Pharm depends on current market conditions and Agios Pharm's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Agios Pharm is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Agios Pharm's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Agios Pharm Short Properties
Agios Pharm's future price predictability will typically decrease when Agios Pharm's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Agios Pharm often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Agios Pharm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agios Pharm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 893.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agios Pharm to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Agios Stock, please use our How to Invest in Agios Pharm guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Agios diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agios Pharm. If investors know Agios will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Agios Pharm data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Agios Pharm's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Agios's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Agios Pharm's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Agios Pharm's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Agios Pharm's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Agios Pharm represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Agios Pharm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.