Agilysys Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| AGYS Stock | USD 85.26 0.41 0.48% |
Agilysys Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Agilysys' share price is below 30 at this time. This suggests that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Agilysys, making its price go up or down. Momentum 28
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Agilysys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Agilysys from the perspective of Agilysys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Agilysys on the next trading day is expected to be 107.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 259.94. Agilysys after-hype prediction price | USD 85.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilysys to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Agilysys Stock please use our How to Invest in Agilysys guide.Agilysys Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Agilysys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Agilysys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Agilysys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agilysys Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Agilysys on the next trading day is expected to be 107.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.26, mean absolute percentage error of 35.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 259.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agilysys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agilysys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agilysys Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Agilysys | Agilysys Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Agilysys Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agilysys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agilysys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 104.12 and 110.85, respectively. We have considered Agilysys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agilysys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agilysys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.6888 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.2613 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0385 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 259.9385 |
Predictive Modules for Agilysys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agilysys. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agilysys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Agilysys After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Agilysys at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Agilysys or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Agilysys, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Agilysys Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Agilysys' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Agilysys' historical news coverage. Agilysys' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 81.90 and 88.62, respectively. We have considered Agilysys' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Agilysys is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Agilysys is based on 3 months time horizon.
Agilysys Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Agilysys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Agilysys backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Agilysys, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 3.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
85.26 | 85.26 | 0.00 |
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Agilysys Hype Timeline
Agilysys is presently traded for 85.26. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Agilysys is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.57%. %. The volatility of related hype on Agilysys is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 85.26. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 244.05. Agilysys last dividend was issued on the 16th of July 2009. The entity had 3:2 split on the 7th of September 1995. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilysys to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Agilysys Stock please use our How to Invest in Agilysys guide.Agilysys Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Agilysys' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Agilysys' future price movements. Getting to know how Agilysys' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Agilysys may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BL | Blackline | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.70 | (3.99) | 8.01 | |
| GBTG | Global Business Travel | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.82 | (4.10) | 13.45 | |
| PTRN | Pattern Group Series | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.93 | (6.68) | 20.35 | |
| DAVE | Dave Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.90 | (8.15) | 19.07 | |
| ASAN | Asana Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.44 | (6.05) | 15.87 | |
| VERX | Vertex | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.45 | (3.77) | 10.77 | |
| FRSH | Freshworks | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.17 | 0 | 3.12 | (3.39) | 9.83 | |
| KC | Kingsoft Cloud Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.68 | 0.05 | 8.10 | (4.70) | 26.30 | |
| NAVN | Navan Class A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 6.74 | (9.22) | 21.66 | |
| BLKB | Blackbaud | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.47 | (4.13) | 11.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Agilysys
For every potential investor in Agilysys, whether a beginner or expert, Agilysys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agilysys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agilysys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agilysys' price trends.Agilysys Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agilysys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agilysys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agilysys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agilysys Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agilysys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agilysys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agilysys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agilysys entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Agilysys Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agilysys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agilysys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agilysys stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Variance | 11.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Agilysys
The number of cover stories for Agilysys depends on current market conditions and Agilysys' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Agilysys is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Agilysys' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Agilysys Short Properties
Agilysys' future price predictability will typically decrease when Agilysys' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Agilysys often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Agilysys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agilysys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 73 M |
Additional Tools for Agilysys Stock Analysis
When running Agilysys' price analysis, check to measure Agilysys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agilysys is operating at the current time. Most of Agilysys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agilysys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agilysys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agilysys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.