Altius Minerals Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ALS Stock | CAD 45.83 0.39 0.86% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Altius Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 46.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.48. Altius Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Altius Minerals' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Altius Minerals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Altius Minerals from the perspective of Altius Minerals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Altius Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 46.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.48. Altius Minerals after-hype prediction price | CAD 44.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Altius |
Altius Minerals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Altius price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Altius using various technical indicators. When you analyze Altius charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Altius Minerals Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Altius Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 46.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Altius Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Altius Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Altius Minerals Stock Forecast Pattern
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Altius Minerals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Altius Minerals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Altius Minerals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.78 and 48.34, respectively. We have considered Altius Minerals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Altius Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Altius Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1206 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6692 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.4846 |
Predictive Modules for Altius Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Altius Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Altius Minerals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Altius Minerals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Altius Minerals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Altius Minerals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Altius Minerals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Altius Minerals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Altius Minerals' historical news coverage. Altius Minerals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.66 and 47.26, respectively. We have considered Altius Minerals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Altius Minerals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Altius Minerals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Altius Minerals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Altius Minerals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Altius Minerals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Altius Minerals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 2.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
45.83 | 44.96 | 1.90 |
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Altius Minerals Hype Timeline
Altius Minerals is presently traded for 45.83on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Altius is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 44.96. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -1.9%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.42%. The volatility of related hype on Altius Minerals is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.83. About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Altius Minerals was presently reported as 18.36. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.65. Altius Minerals last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. The entity had 1:5 split on the 24th of February 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Altius Minerals to cross-verify your projections.Altius Minerals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Altius Minerals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Altius Minerals' future price movements. Getting to know how Altius Minerals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Altius Minerals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LIF | Labrador Iron Ore | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.64 | 0.08 | 1.59 | (1.29) | 5.36 | |
| LAC | Lithium Americas Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.71 | 0.02 | 7.03 | (6.20) | 13.41 | |
| AFM | Alphamin Res | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.73 | 0.15 | 5.88 | (4.76) | 16.71 | |
| AII | Almonty Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.84 | 0.16 | 9.41 | (7.42) | 20.82 | |
| VZLA | Vizsla Silver Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.12 | 0.20 | 7.68 | (4.09) | 27.38 | |
| NDM | Northern Dynasty Minerals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.04 | 0.04 | 7.75 | (7.20) | 19.46 | |
| FOM | Foran Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | 0.37 | 7.18 | (2.56) | 13.97 | |
| VNP | 5N Plus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.67 | 0 | 4.40 | (4.50) | 16.43 | |
| SVM | Silvercorp Metals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | 0.33 | 7.27 | (3.83) | 14.18 | |
| SLI | Standard Lithium | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.76 | 0.13 | 8.57 | (5.58) | 16.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Altius Minerals
For every potential investor in Altius, whether a beginner or expert, Altius Minerals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Altius Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Altius. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Altius Minerals' price trends.Altius Minerals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Altius Minerals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Altius Minerals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Altius Minerals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Altius Minerals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Altius Minerals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Altius Minerals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Altius Minerals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Altius Minerals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Altius Minerals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Altius Minerals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Altius Minerals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting altius stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.72) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Altius Minerals
The number of cover stories for Altius Minerals depends on current market conditions and Altius Minerals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Altius Minerals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Altius Minerals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Altius Minerals Short Properties
Altius Minerals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Altius Minerals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Altius Minerals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Altius Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Altius Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.9 M |
Other Information on Investing in Altius Stock
Altius Minerals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Altius Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Altius with respect to the benefits of owning Altius Minerals security.