Advanced Micro Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMD Stock | 46.55 0.71 1.55% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 49.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.59. Advanced Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Advanced Micro's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Advanced Micro's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Advanced Micro fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Advanced Micro's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.603 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.356 |
Using Advanced Micro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advanced Micro Devices from the perspective of Advanced Micro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 49.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.59. Advanced Micro after-hype prediction price | CAD 46.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Advanced |
Advanced Micro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Advanced price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advanced using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advanced charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Advanced Micro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 49.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11, mean absolute percentage error of 1.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advanced Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advanced Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Advanced Micro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Advanced Micro | Advanced Micro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Advanced Micro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Advanced Micro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advanced Micro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.37 and 52.98, respectively. We have considered Advanced Micro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advanced Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advanced Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.636 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1063 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0268 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 68.5885 |
Predictive Modules for Advanced Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advanced Micro Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Advanced Micro After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Advanced Micro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advanced Micro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advanced Micro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Advanced Micro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Advanced Micro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advanced Micro's historical news coverage. Advanced Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.25 and 49.85, respectively. We have considered Advanced Micro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Advanced Micro is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advanced Micro Devices is based on 3 months time horizon.
Advanced Micro Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advanced Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advanced Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advanced Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 3.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
46.55 | 46.55 | 0.00 |
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Advanced Micro Hype Timeline
Advanced Micro Devices is presently traded for 46.55on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Advanced is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Advanced Micro is about 195.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 46.55. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.52. Advanced Micro Devices had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections.Advanced Micro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Advanced Micro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advanced Micro's future price movements. Getting to know how Advanced Micro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advanced Micro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QTWO | Q2 Metals Corp | 0.04 | 4 per month | 3.18 | 0.26 | 10.20 | (6.07) | 22.06 | |
| OM | Osisko Metals Incorporated | 0.03 | 5 per month | 3.02 | 0.19 | 8.00 | (5.88) | 20.88 | |
| RAMP | Ramp Metals | 0.00 | 8 per month | 2.34 | 0.04 | 7.14 | (3.45) | 15.56 | |
| FLCN | Falcon Energy Materials | 0.05 | 6 per month | 3.52 | 0.01 | 7.58 | (6.10) | 25.60 | |
| BN-PK | Brookfield Asset Management | (12.42) | 6 per month | 0.15 | (0.18) | 0.55 | (0.48) | 1.97 | |
| PMET | Patriot Battery Metals | 0.35 | 7 per month | 4.12 | 0.16 | 11.11 | (6.14) | 21.57 | |
| NANO | Nano One Materials | 0.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.37 | (7.59) | 33.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Advanced Micro
For every potential investor in Advanced, whether a beginner or expert, Advanced Micro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advanced Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advanced. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advanced Micro's price trends.Advanced Micro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advanced Micro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advanced Micro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advanced Micro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Advanced Micro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advanced Micro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advanced Micro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advanced Micro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advanced Micro Devices entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13539.82 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4356 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 46.31 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.72 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.71 |
Advanced Micro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Advanced Micro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advanced Micro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advanced stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Variance | 11.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Advanced Micro
The number of cover stories for Advanced Micro depends on current market conditions and Advanced Micro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advanced Micro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advanced Micro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Advanced Micro Short Properties
Advanced Micro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Advanced Micro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Advanced Micro Devices often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Advanced Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advanced Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.