American Superconductor Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AMSC Stock | USD 31.45 0.37 1.16% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Superconductor stock prices and determine the direction of American Superconductor's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Superconductor's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of American Superconductor's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using American Superconductor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Superconductor from the perspective of American Superconductor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of American Superconductor on the next trading day is expected to be 31.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.30. American Superconductor after-hype prediction price | USD 31.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Superconductor to cross-verify your projections. American Superconductor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Superconductor Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of American Superconductor on the next trading day is expected to be 31.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43, mean absolute percentage error of 10.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Superconductor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Superconductor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Superconductor | American Superconductor Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Superconductor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Superconductor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Superconductor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.60 and 37.67, respectively. We have considered American Superconductor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Superconductor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Superconductor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7963 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.7269 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4289 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0416 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 84.305 |
Predictive Modules for American Superconductor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Superconductor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Superconductor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Superconductor After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Superconductor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Superconductor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Superconductor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Superconductor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Superconductor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Superconductor's historical news coverage. American Superconductor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.42 and 37.48, respectively. We have considered American Superconductor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Superconductor is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Superconductor is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Superconductor Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Superconductor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Superconductor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Superconductor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.81 | 6.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.45 | 31.45 | 0.00 |
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American Superconductor Hype Timeline
American Superconductor is presently traded for 31.45. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. American is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.81%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Superconductor is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.45. About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of American Superconductor was presently reported as 7.57. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 273.04. American Superconductor had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:10 split on the 25th of March 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Superconductor to cross-verify your projections.American Superconductor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Superconductor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Superconductor's future price movements. Getting to know how American Superconductor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Superconductor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NCTKF | Nabtesco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SXI | Standex International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.01 | 0.02 | 3.21 | (2.82) | 12.69 | |
| SOHVF | Sumitomo Heavy Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| THKLF | THK Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IRRHF | Interroll Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.79 | |
| KRDXF | Kardex Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 0.82 | (0.36) | 12.18 | |
| JGHAF | Jungheinrich Aktiengesellschaft | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MIURF | Miura Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| XMTR | Xometry | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.62 | 0.08 | 5.19 | (7.00) | 38.74 | |
| PSIX | Power Solutions International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.03 | (6.33) | 24.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Superconductor
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Superconductor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Superconductor's price trends.American Superconductor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Superconductor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Superconductor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Superconductor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Superconductor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Superconductor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Superconductor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Superconductor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Superconductor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Superconductor Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Superconductor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Superconductor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.03 | |||
| Variance | 36.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Superconductor
The number of cover stories for American Superconductor depends on current market conditions and American Superconductor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Superconductor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Superconductor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Superconductor Short Properties
American Superconductor's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Superconductor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Superconductor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Superconductor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Superconductor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 79.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Superconductor to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could American diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Superconductor. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every American Superconductor data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate American Superconductor using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating American Superconductor's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause American Superconductor's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that American Superconductor's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether American Superconductor represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, American Superconductor's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.