Alpha Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AOSL Stock | USD 22.50 0.03 0.13% |
Alpha Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Alpha's share price is approaching 47. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alpha, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alpha hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alpha and Omega from the perspective of Alpha response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Alpha and Omega on the next trading day is expected to be 22.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.08. Alpha after-hype prediction price | USD 22.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha to cross-verify your projections. Alpha Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alpha price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alpha using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alpha charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alpha Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Alpha and Omega on the next trading day is expected to be 22.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 1.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alpha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alpha's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alpha Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alpha | Alpha Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alpha Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alpha's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alpha's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.95 and 27.02, respectively. We have considered Alpha's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alpha stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alpha stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.814 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1474 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6455 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0311 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.085 |
Predictive Modules for Alpha
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alpha and Omega. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alpha's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alpha After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alpha at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alpha or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alpha, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alpha Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alpha's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alpha's historical news coverage. Alpha's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.96 and 27.04, respectively. We have considered Alpha's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alpha is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alpha and Omega is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alpha Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alpha is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alpha backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alpha, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 4.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.50 | 22.50 | 0.00 |
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Alpha Hype Timeline
Alpha and Omega is presently traded for 22.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Alpha is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alpha is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.50. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.8. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alpha and Omega recorded a loss per share of 3.28. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha to cross-verify your projections.Alpha Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alpha's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alpha's future price movements. Getting to know how Alpha's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alpha may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LAES | SEALSQ Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 10.08 | (8.80) | 21.52 | |
| ADTN | ADTRAN Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.76 | (4.26) | 24.26 | |
| ICHR | Ichor Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.83 | 0.13 | 8.45 | (4.99) | 32.43 | |
| SKYT | Skywater Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.85 | 0.16 | 12.40 | (9.12) | 48.91 | |
| IMOS | ChipMOS Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.39 | 0.24 | 8.27 | (3.79) | 23.93 | |
| CRSR | Corsair Gaming | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.87 | (4.94) | 14.51 | |
| INDI | indie Semiconductor | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.76 | (5.97) | 19.05 | |
| YMT | Yimutian American Depositary | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.37 | 0.04 | 12.06 | (8.57) | 29.18 | |
| WOLF | Wolfspeed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 9.02 | (7.53) | 19.52 | |
| OPFI | OppFi Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.30 | (0.02) | 4.53 | (3.78) | 10.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alpha
For every potential investor in Alpha, whether a beginner or expert, Alpha's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alpha Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alpha. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alpha's price trends.Alpha Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alpha stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alpha could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alpha by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alpha Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alpha stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alpha shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alpha stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alpha and Omega entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alpha Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alpha's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alpha's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alpha stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.54 | |||
| Variance | 20.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alpha
The number of cover stories for Alpha depends on current market conditions and Alpha's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alpha is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alpha's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alpha Short Properties
Alpha's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alpha's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alpha and Omega often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alpha's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alpha's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 153.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alpha. If investors know Alpha will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Alpha assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate Alpha and Omega using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Alpha's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Alpha's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Alpha's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Alpha represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Alpha's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.