Arbonia AG Stock Forward View
| ARBN Stock | CHF 5.25 0.08 1.55% |
Arbonia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Arbonia AG's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.729 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0202 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1697 | Wall Street Target Price 6.1 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.147 |
Using Arbonia AG hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arbonia AG from the perspective of Arbonia AG response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arbonia AG on the next trading day is expected to be 5.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.65. Arbonia AG after-hype prediction price | CHF 5.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Arbonia |
Arbonia AG Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arbonia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arbonia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arbonia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arbonia AG Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arbonia AG on the next trading day is expected to be 5.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arbonia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arbonia AG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arbonia AG Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arbonia AG | Arbonia AG Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Arbonia AG Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arbonia AG's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arbonia AG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.63 and 7.64, respectively. We have considered Arbonia AG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arbonia AG stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arbonia AG stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.3014 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1254 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0254 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.6514 |
Predictive Modules for Arbonia AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arbonia AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arbonia AG After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arbonia AG at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arbonia AG or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arbonia AG, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arbonia AG Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arbonia AG's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arbonia AG's historical news coverage. Arbonia AG's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.66 and 7.70, respectively. We have considered Arbonia AG's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arbonia AG is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arbonia AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arbonia AG Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arbonia AG is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arbonia AG backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arbonia AG, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.50 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 3 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.25 | 5.18 | 0.19 |
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Arbonia AG Hype Timeline
Arbonia AG is presently traded for 5.25on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. Arbonia is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.18 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is anticipated to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Arbonia AG is about 147.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.06. The company reported the revenue of 556.31 M. Net Income was 8.28 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 367.74 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arbonia AG to cross-verify your projections.Arbonia AG Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arbonia AG's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arbonia AG's future price movements. Getting to know how Arbonia AG's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arbonia AG may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SWTQ | Schweiter Technologies AG | 1.50 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.55 | (4.66) | 16.81 | |
| METN | Metall Zug AG | (32.00) | 2 per month | 1.08 | 0.02 | 2.46 | (1.95) | 9.34 | |
| MIKN | Mikron Holding AG | (0.50) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.45 | (4.10) | 19.62 | |
| MEDX | medmix AG | 0.12 | 2 per month | 0.98 | 0.15 | 2.93 | (2.15) | 12.84 | |
| KOMN | Komax Holding AG | 0.50 | 5 per month | 2.34 | 0.01 | 4.62 | (4.09) | 10.87 | |
| MTG | Meier Tobler Group | 0.90 | 5 per month | 1.91 | (0.05) | 3.41 | (2.20) | 9.93 | |
| PMN | PHOENIX N AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | (0.05) | 3.09 | (4.01) | 7.50 | |
| LECN | Leclanche SA | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.69 | (7.14) | 26.79 | |
| OFN | Orell Fuessli Holding | 2.50 | 1 per month | 0.62 | (0.03) | 1.74 | (1.25) | 4.29 | |
| BVZN | BVZ Holding AG | 10.00 | 5 per month | 1.29 | 0.16 | 3.82 | (2.78) | 14.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arbonia AG
For every potential investor in Arbonia, whether a beginner or expert, Arbonia AG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arbonia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arbonia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arbonia AG's price trends.Arbonia AG Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arbonia AG stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arbonia AG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arbonia AG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arbonia AG Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arbonia AG stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arbonia AG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arbonia AG stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arbonia AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6087.95 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.27 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.08 |
Arbonia AG Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arbonia AG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arbonia AG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arbonia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Variance | 6.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arbonia AG
The number of cover stories for Arbonia AG depends on current market conditions and Arbonia AG's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arbonia AG is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arbonia AG's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arbonia AG Short Properties
Arbonia AG's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arbonia AG's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arbonia AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arbonia AG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arbonia AG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.6 M |
Additional Tools for Arbonia Stock Analysis
When running Arbonia AG's price analysis, check to measure Arbonia AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbonia AG is operating at the current time. Most of Arbonia AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbonia AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbonia AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbonia AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.