Algoma Steel Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ASTL Stock | USD 4.54 0.16 3.65% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Algoma Steel Group on the next trading day is expected to be 4.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.58. Algoma Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Algoma Steel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Algoma Steel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Algoma Steel fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength momentum indicator of Algoma Steel's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.93) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.04) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.07) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.63) | Wall Street Target Price 20 |
Using Algoma Steel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Algoma Steel Group from the perspective of Algoma Steel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Algoma Steel using Algoma Steel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Algoma using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Algoma Steel's stock price.
Algoma Steel Short Interest
An investor who is long Algoma Steel may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Algoma Steel and may potentially protect profits, hedge Algoma Steel with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.5666 | Short Percent 0.0763 | Short Ratio 2.09 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.6 M | 50 Day MA 4.1364 |
Algoma Steel Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Algoma Steel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Algoma. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Algoma can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Algoma Steel Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Algoma Steel Implied Volatility | 1.78 |
Algoma Steel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Algoma Steel Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Algoma Steel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Algoma Steel stock will not fluctuate a lot when Algoma Steel's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Algoma Steel Group on the next trading day is expected to be 4.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.58. Algoma Steel after-hype prediction price | USD 4.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Algoma Steel to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Algoma contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Algoma Steel Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.11% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Algoma Steel trading at USD 4.54, that is roughly USD 0.005051 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Algoma Steel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Algoma Steel Group options at the current volatility level of 1.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Algoma Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Algoma Steel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Algoma Steel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Algoma Steel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Algoma Steel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Algoma Steel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Algoma Steel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Algoma. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Algoma Steel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Algoma price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Algoma using various technical indicators. When you analyze Algoma charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Algoma Steel Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Algoma Steel Group on the next trading day is expected to be 4.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Algoma Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Algoma Steel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Algoma Steel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Algoma Steel | Algoma Steel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Algoma Steel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Algoma Steel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Algoma Steel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.57 and 8.49, respectively. We have considered Algoma Steel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Algoma Steel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Algoma Steel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0149 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1285 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0317 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.58 |
Predictive Modules for Algoma Steel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Algoma Steel Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Algoma Steel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Algoma Steel After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Algoma Steel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Algoma Steel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Algoma Steel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Algoma Steel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Algoma Steel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Algoma Steel's historical news coverage. Algoma Steel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.58 and 8.50, respectively. We have considered Algoma Steel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Algoma Steel is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Algoma Steel Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Algoma Steel Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Algoma Steel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Algoma Steel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Algoma Steel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 3.96 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.54 | 4.54 | 0.00 |
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Algoma Steel Hype Timeline
Algoma Steel Group is presently traded for 4.54. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Algoma is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Algoma Steel is about 3700.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.52. About 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Algoma Steel Group recorded a loss per share of 1.03. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of May 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Algoma Steel to cross-verify your projections.Algoma Steel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Algoma Steel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Algoma Steel's future price movements. Getting to know how Algoma Steel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Algoma Steel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LPX | Louisiana Pacific | (0.56) | 12 per month | 2.43 | (0.01) | 4.15 | (2.57) | 11.95 | |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | 0.05 | 11 per month | 1.24 | 0.11 | 2.69 | (2.56) | 7.97 | |
| NGD | New Gold | 0.03 | 10 per month | 3.01 | 0.22 | 7.41 | (4.72) | 19.38 | |
| ESI | Element Solutions | (0.16) | 6 per month | 1.79 | 0.04 | 3.96 | (3.60) | 10.60 | |
| EXP | Eagle Materials | 0.05 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.89 | (2.74) | 9.20 | |
| TFPM | Triple Flag Precious | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.84 | 0.21 | 4.21 | (2.79) | 12.83 | |
| IAG | IAMGold | 0.01 | 9 per month | 2.94 | 0.17 | 5.49 | (4.94) | 18.37 | |
| BVN | Compania de Minas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | 0.35 | 4.32 | (3.44) | 11.22 | |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical | (0.39) | 9 per month | 1.80 | 0.06 | 4.94 | (3.60) | 9.74 | |
| CLF | Cleveland Cliffs | (0.10) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.23 | (9.27) | 17.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Algoma Steel
For every potential investor in Algoma, whether a beginner or expert, Algoma Steel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Algoma Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Algoma. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Algoma Steel's price trends.Algoma Steel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Algoma Steel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Algoma Steel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Algoma Steel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Algoma Steel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Algoma Steel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Algoma Steel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Algoma Steel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Algoma Steel Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Algoma Steel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Algoma Steel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Algoma Steel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting algoma stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.14 | |||
| Variance | 17.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Algoma Steel
The number of cover stories for Algoma Steel depends on current market conditions and Algoma Steel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Algoma Steel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Algoma Steel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Algoma Steel Short Properties
Algoma Steel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Algoma Steel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Algoma Steel Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Algoma Steel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Algoma Steel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 108.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 266.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Algoma Steel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Algoma Steel. If investors know Algoma will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Algoma Steel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.93) | Dividend Share 0.427 | Earnings Share (1.03) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) |
The market value of Algoma Steel Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Algoma that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Algoma Steel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Algoma Steel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Algoma Steel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Algoma Steel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Algoma Steel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Algoma Steel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Algoma Steel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.