BAE Systems Pink Sheet Forward View
| BAESY Stock | USD 108.56 1.44 1.31% |
BAE Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of BAE Systems' share price is at 56 suggesting that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling BAE Systems, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using BAE Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BAE Systems PLC from the perspective of BAE Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of BAE Systems PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 104.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.92. BAE Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 108.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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BAE Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BAE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BAE using various technical indicators. When you analyze BAE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
BAE Systems Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of BAE Systems PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 104.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89, mean absolute percentage error of 6.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BAE Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BAE Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BAE Systems Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest BAE Systems | BAE Systems Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
BAE Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting BAE Systems' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BAE Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 102.45 and 106.32, respectively. We have considered BAE Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BAE Systems pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BAE Systems pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.7849 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8858 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0195 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 116.9213 |
Predictive Modules for BAE Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BAE Systems PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BAE Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BAE Systems After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BAE Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BAE Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of BAE Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BAE Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BAE Systems' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BAE Systems' historical news coverage. BAE Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 106.24 and 110.12, respectively. We have considered BAE Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BAE Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BAE Systems PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
BAE Systems Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BAE Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BAE Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BAE Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.94 | 0.38 | 3.03 | 29 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 29 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
108.56 | 108.18 | 0.35 |
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BAE Systems Hype Timeline
BAE Systems PLC is currently traded for 108.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.38, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 3.03. BAE is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 108.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 96.04%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on BAE Systems is about 12.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 111.59. The book value of the company was currently reported as 14.47. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of October 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in about 29 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BAE Systems to cross-verify your projections.BAE Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BAE Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BAE Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how BAE Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BAE Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for BAE Systems
For every potential investor in BAE, whether a beginner or expert, BAE Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BAE Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BAE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BAE Systems' price trends.View BAE Systems Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BAE Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BAE Systems pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BAE Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BAE Systems pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify BAE Systems PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 159.3 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.06) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 109.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 108.95 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.31) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.44) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.54 |
BAE Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of BAE Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BAE Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bae pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Variance | 3.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for BAE Systems
The number of cover stories for BAE Systems depends on current market conditions and BAE Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BAE Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BAE Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for BAE Pink Sheet Analysis
When running BAE Systems' price analysis, check to measure BAE Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BAE Systems is operating at the current time. Most of BAE Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BAE Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BAE Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BAE Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.