Columbia Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CLBK Stock | USD 16.32 0.29 1.81% |
Columbia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Columbia Financial's share price is at 55 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Columbia Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Columbia Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Columbia Financial from the perspective of Columbia Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Columbia Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 16.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.50. Columbia Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 16.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Columbia Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Columbia Stock please use our How to buy in Columbia Stock guide.Columbia Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Columbia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Columbia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Columbia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Columbia Financial Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Columbia Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 16.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Columbia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Columbia Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Columbia Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Columbia Financial | Columbia Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Columbia Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Columbia Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Columbia Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.52 and 17.83, respectively. We have considered Columbia Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Columbia Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Columbia Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.9417 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0334 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2288 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.5 |
Predictive Modules for Columbia Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Columbia Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Columbia Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Columbia Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Columbia Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Columbia Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Columbia Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Columbia Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Columbia Financial's historical news coverage. Columbia Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.67 and 17.97, respectively. We have considered Columbia Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Columbia Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Columbia Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Columbia Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Columbia Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Columbia Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Columbia Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.32 | 16.32 | 0.00 |
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Columbia Financial Hype Timeline
Columbia Financial is currently traded for 16.32. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Columbia is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Columbia Financial is about 16500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.32. About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.46. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Columbia Financial had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Columbia Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Columbia Stock please use our How to buy in Columbia Stock guide.Columbia Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Columbia Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Columbia Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Columbia Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Columbia Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CCB | Coastal Financial Corp | 0.39 | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.86 | (4.67) | 9.36 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | (0.61) | 10 per month | 0.73 | 0.15 | 2.67 | (1.75) | 8.20 | |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | 0.27 | 9 per month | 1.31 | 0.06 | 2.92 | (1.48) | 8.12 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | (0) | 3.46 | (2.49) | 7.37 | |
| BLX | Foreign Trade Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.83 | 0.14 | 2.74 | (1.70) | 5.44 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | (0.28) | 10 per month | 1.03 | 0.11 | 3.41 | (1.67) | 7.18 | |
| SRCE | 1st Source | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.10 | 2.22 | (2.02) | 5.76 | |
| FRME | First Merchants | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.08 | 2.80 | (1.50) | 8.32 | |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares | 0.49 | 7 per month | 1.35 | 0 | 3.66 | (2.50) | 7.37 | |
| CHCO | City Holding | (0.16) | 10 per month | 1.10 | (0.04) | 1.91 | (1.54) | 6.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Columbia Financial
For every potential investor in Columbia, whether a beginner or expert, Columbia Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Columbia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Columbia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Columbia Financial's price trends.Columbia Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Columbia Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Columbia Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Columbia Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Columbia Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Columbia Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Columbia Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Columbia Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Columbia Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Columbia Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Columbia Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Columbia Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting columbia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Variance | 2.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Columbia Financial
The number of cover stories for Columbia Financial depends on current market conditions and Columbia Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Columbia Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Columbia Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Columbia Financial Short Properties
Columbia Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Columbia Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Columbia Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Columbia Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Columbia Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 101.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Columbia Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Columbia Stock please use our How to buy in Columbia Stock guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Columbia Financial. Projected growth potential of Columbia fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Columbia Financial assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Columbia Financial's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Columbia's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Columbia Financial's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Columbia Financial's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Columbia Financial's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Columbia Financial should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Columbia Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.