CNH Industrial Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CNH Stock   10.76  0.04  0.37%   
CNH Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CNH Industrial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, The value of RSI of CNH Industrial's share price is at 56 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CNH Industrial, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 56

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of CNH Industrial's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with CNH Industrial NV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using CNH Industrial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CNH Industrial NV from the perspective of CNH Industrial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CNH Industrial NV on the next trading day is expected to be 10.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.71.

CNH Industrial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 10.76  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNH Industrial to cross-verify your projections.

CNH Industrial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine CNH price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CNH using various technical indicators. When you analyze CNH charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
CNH Industrial simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for CNH Industrial NV are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as CNH Industrial NV prices get older.

CNH Industrial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CNH Industrial NV on the next trading day is expected to be 10.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CNH Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CNH Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CNH Industrial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CNH Industrial  CNH Industrial Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

CNH Industrial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CNH Industrial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CNH Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.64 and 12.88, respectively. We have considered CNH Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.76
10.76
Expected Value
12.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CNH Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CNH Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.1561
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0045
MADMean absolute deviation0.1618
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0163
SAESum of the absolute errors9.71
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting CNH Industrial NV forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent CNH Industrial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for CNH Industrial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CNH Industrial NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.6410.7612.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.3310.4512.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.0010.2611.53
Details

CNH Industrial After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of CNH Industrial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CNH Industrial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CNH Industrial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

CNH Industrial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting CNH Industrial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CNH Industrial's historical news coverage. CNH Industrial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.64 and 12.88, respectively. We have considered CNH Industrial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
10.76
10.76
After-hype Price
12.88
Upside
CNH Industrial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CNH Industrial NV is based on 3 months time horizon.

CNH Industrial Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CNH Industrial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CNH Industrial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CNH Industrial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
2.12
 0.00  
  0.10 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.76
10.76
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

CNH Industrial Hype Timeline

On the 29th of January CNH Industrial NV is traded for 10.76. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.1. CNH is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on CNH Industrial is about 124.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.86. About 30.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.74. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CNH Industrial NV has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.26. The entity last dividend was issued on the 21st of May 2025. The firm had 957:250 split on the 30th of September 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNH Industrial to cross-verify your projections.

CNH Industrial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to CNH Industrial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CNH Industrial's future price movements. Getting to know how CNH Industrial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CNH Industrial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MASMasco 16.07 7 per month 1.34 (0.0008) 3.51 (2.16) 7.82 
NDSNNordson 0.00 0 per month 0.65  0.21  2.33 (1.31) 4.63 
IEXIDEX Corporation 0.00 0 per month 0.71  0.16  2.50 (1.54) 6.54 
GGGGraco Inc 0.00 0 per month 1.17  0.05  2.46 (1.86) 6.74 
WCCWESCO International 0.00 0 per month 2.03  0.08  3.36 (3.42) 10.20 
AVYAvery Dennison Corp 0.00 0 per month 1.01  0.04  2.52 (1.68) 6.45 
LECOLincoln Electric Holdings 0.00 0 per month 1.45  0.11  2.53 (2.84) 7.77 
MLIMueller Industries 0.00 0 per month 0.81  0.31  2.11 (1.65) 4.16 
BLDRBuilders FirstSource 0.00 0 per month 2.07 (0.01) 5.94 (3.37) 15.38 
LTMLATAM Airlines Group 0.99 12 per month 1.09  0.31  3.92 (2.24) 8.49 

Other Forecasting Options for CNH Industrial

For every potential investor in CNH, whether a beginner or expert, CNH Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CNH Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CNH. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CNH Industrial's price trends.

CNH Industrial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CNH Industrial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CNH Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CNH Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CNH Industrial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CNH Industrial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CNH Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CNH Industrial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CNH Industrial NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CNH Industrial Risk Indicators

The analysis of CNH Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CNH Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cnh stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for CNH Industrial

The number of cover stories for CNH Industrial depends on current market conditions and CNH Industrial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CNH Industrial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CNH Industrial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

CNH Industrial Short Properties

CNH Industrial's future price predictability will typically decrease when CNH Industrial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CNH Industrial NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CNH Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CNH Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.3 B
Cash And Short Term Investments3.9 B
When determining whether CNH Industrial NV offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of CNH Industrial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cnh Industrial Nv Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cnh Industrial Nv Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNH Industrial to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is there potential for Stock market expansion? Will CNH introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CNH Industrial. Projected growth potential of CNH fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about CNH Industrial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Understanding CNH Industrial NV requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects CNH's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what CNH Industrial's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push CNH Industrial's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between CNH Industrial's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding CNH Industrial should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, CNH Industrial's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.