Deckers Outdoor Stock Forward View
| DECK Stock | USD 99.90 2.28 2.34% |
Deckers Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Deckers Outdoor's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Deckers Outdoor, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Deckers Outdoor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Deckers Outdoor from the perspective of Deckers Outdoor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deckers Outdoor on the next trading day is expected to be 99.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.38. Deckers Outdoor after-hype prediction price | USD 99.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deckers Outdoor to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Deckers Stock please use our How to buy in Deckers Stock guide.Deckers Outdoor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Deckers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Deckers using various technical indicators. When you analyze Deckers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Deckers Outdoor Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deckers Outdoor on the next trading day is expected to be 99.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78, mean absolute percentage error of 4.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Deckers Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Deckers Outdoor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Deckers Outdoor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Deckers Outdoor | Deckers Outdoor Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Deckers Outdoor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Deckers Outdoor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Deckers Outdoor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97.62 and 102.06, respectively. We have considered Deckers Outdoor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Deckers Outdoor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Deckers Outdoor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6167 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7768 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 108.3841 |
Predictive Modules for Deckers Outdoor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deckers Outdoor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deckers Outdoor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Deckers Outdoor After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Deckers Outdoor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Deckers Outdoor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Deckers Outdoor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Deckers Outdoor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Deckers Outdoor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Deckers Outdoor's historical news coverage. Deckers Outdoor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 97.68 and 102.12, respectively. We have considered Deckers Outdoor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Deckers Outdoor is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Deckers Outdoor is based on 3 months time horizon.
Deckers Outdoor Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Deckers Outdoor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Deckers Outdoor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Deckers Outdoor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
99.90 | 99.90 | 0.00 |
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Deckers Outdoor Hype Timeline
Deckers Outdoor is currently traded for 99.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Deckers is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on Deckers Outdoor is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 99.90. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.62. Deckers Outdoor recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.73. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 6:1 split on the 17th of September 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deckers Outdoor to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Deckers Stock please use our How to buy in Deckers Stock guide.Deckers Outdoor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Deckers Outdoor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Deckers Outdoor's future price movements. Getting to know how Deckers Outdoor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Deckers Outdoor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CCK | Crown Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | 0.05 | 2.35 | (2.36) | 6.71 | |
| SN | SharkNinja | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.63 | 0.22 | 5.64 | (2.96) | 10.24 | |
| ONON | On Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.79 | 0.1 | 4.25 | (2.98) | 22.63 | |
| TOL | Toll Brothers | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.05 | 4.26 | (2.37) | 10.06 | |
| SCI | Service International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.65 | (1.61) | 4.27 | |
| HTHT | Huazhu Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.17 | 2.60 | (2.74) | 11.94 | |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.62 | (2.10) | 6.07 | |
| BALL | Ball Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.17 | 3.01 | (1.76) | 7.45 | |
| BIRK | Birkenstock Holding plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.30 | (3.43) | 16.78 | |
| MGA | Magna International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.09 | 3.05 | (2.32) | 8.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Deckers Outdoor
For every potential investor in Deckers, whether a beginner or expert, Deckers Outdoor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Deckers Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Deckers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Deckers Outdoor's price trends.Deckers Outdoor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Deckers Outdoor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Deckers Outdoor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Deckers Outdoor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Deckers Outdoor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Deckers Outdoor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Deckers Outdoor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Deckers Outdoor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Deckers Outdoor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Deckers Outdoor Risk Indicators
The analysis of Deckers Outdoor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Deckers Outdoor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting deckers stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Deckers Outdoor
The number of cover stories for Deckers Outdoor depends on current market conditions and Deckers Outdoor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Deckers Outdoor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Deckers Outdoor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Deckers Outdoor Short Properties
Deckers Outdoor's future price predictability will typically decrease when Deckers Outdoor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Deckers Outdoor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Deckers Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Deckers Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 152.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deckers Outdoor to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Deckers Stock please use our How to buy in Deckers Stock guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Deckers Outdoor. Projected growth potential of Deckers fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Deckers Outdoor assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding Deckers Outdoor requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Deckers's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Deckers Outdoor's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Deckers Outdoor's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Deckers Outdoor's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Deckers Outdoor should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Deckers Outdoor's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.