Energy Fuels Stock Forward View
| EFR Stock | CAD 30.45 3.14 9.35% |
Energy Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Energy Fuels' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Energy Fuels' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Energy Fuels fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Energy Fuels' share price is at 55 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Energy Fuels, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0003 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.64) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.249 | Wall Street Target Price 40.75 |
Using Energy Fuels hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Energy Fuels from the perspective of Energy Fuels response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Energy Fuels on the next trading day is expected to be 29.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.26. Energy Fuels after-hype prediction price | CAD 30.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Energy |
Energy Fuels Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Energy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Energy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Energy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Energy Fuels Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Energy Fuels on the next trading day is expected to be 29.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97, mean absolute percentage error of 1.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Energy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Energy Fuels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Energy Fuels Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Energy Fuels | Energy Fuels Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Energy Fuels Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Energy Fuels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Energy Fuels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.42 and 34.86, respectively. We have considered Energy Fuels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Energy Fuels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Energy Fuels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5248 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9715 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0418 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.2627 |
Predictive Modules for Energy Fuels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Energy Fuels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Energy Fuels After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Energy Fuels at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Energy Fuels or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Energy Fuels, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Energy Fuels Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Energy Fuels' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Energy Fuels' historical news coverage. Energy Fuels' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.77 and 36.13, respectively. We have considered Energy Fuels' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Energy Fuels is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Energy Fuels is based on 3 months time horizon.
Energy Fuels Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Energy Fuels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Energy Fuels backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Energy Fuels, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 5.72 | 0.33 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.45 | 30.45 | 0.00 |
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Energy Fuels Hype Timeline
Energy Fuels is currently traded for 30.45on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Energy is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.54%. %. The volatility of related hype on Energy Fuels is about 11122.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.48. About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.65. Energy Fuels had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:50 split on the 5th of November 2013. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Energy Fuels to cross-verify your projections.Energy Fuels Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Energy Fuels' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Energy Fuels' future price movements. Getting to know how Energy Fuels' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Energy Fuels may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NXE | NexGen Energy | (0.1) | 1 per month | 3.36 | 0.11 | 6.55 | (6.00) | 16.36 | |
| DML | Denison Mines Corp | 0.14 | 7 per month | 3.11 | 0.1 | 7.00 | (5.26) | 18.61 | |
| PSK | PrairieSky Royalty | 0.13 | 6 per month | 1.02 | 0.16 | 2.77 | (1.98) | 6.48 | |
| URE | Ur Energy | 0.04 | 5 per month | 3.95 | 0.02 | 7.18 | (6.56) | 15.47 | |
| PEY | Peyto ExplorationDevelopment Corp | 0.20 | 5 per month | 1.48 | 0.15 | 3.52 | (2.31) | 10.43 | |
| EU | enCore Energy Corp | (0.20) | 8 per month | 5.06 | 0.02 | 8.95 | (8.36) | 35.43 | |
| GEI | Gibson Energy | 0.15 | 7 per month | 1.51 | 0.09 | 2.19 | (2.29) | 5.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Energy Fuels
For every potential investor in Energy, whether a beginner or expert, Energy Fuels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Energy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Energy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Energy Fuels' price trends.Energy Fuels Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Energy Fuels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Energy Fuels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Energy Fuels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Energy Fuels Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Energy Fuels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Energy Fuels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Energy Fuels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Energy Fuels entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Energy Fuels Risk Indicators
The analysis of Energy Fuels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Energy Fuels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting energy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.97 | |||
| Variance | 35.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 35.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 30.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Energy Fuels
The number of cover stories for Energy Fuels depends on current market conditions and Energy Fuels' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Energy Fuels is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Energy Fuels' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Energy Fuels Short Properties
Energy Fuels' future price predictability will typically decrease when Energy Fuels' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Energy Fuels often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Energy Fuels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Energy Fuels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 172 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 119.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Energy Fuels to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Energy Stock, please use our How to Invest in Energy Fuels guide.You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.