Four Leaf Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FORL Stock | 11.75 0.00 0.00% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Four Leaf Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 11.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.25. Four Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Four Leaf's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Four Leaf's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Four Leaf fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Four Leaf's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) |
Using Four Leaf hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Four Leaf Acquisition from the perspective of Four Leaf response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Four Leaf Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 11.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.25. Four Leaf after-hype prediction price | USD 11.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Four Leaf to cross-verify your projections. Four Leaf Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Four price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Four using various technical indicators. When you analyze Four charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Four Leaf Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Four Leaf Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 11.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Four Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Four Leaf's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Four Leaf Stock Forecast Pattern
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Four Leaf Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Four Leaf's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Four Leaf's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.47 and 12.03, respectively. We have considered Four Leaf's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Four Leaf stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Four Leaf stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0042 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0042 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 4.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.25 |
Predictive Modules for Four Leaf
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Four Leaf Acquisition. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Four Leaf After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Four Leaf at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Four Leaf or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Four Leaf, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Four Leaf Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Four Leaf's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Four Leaf's historical news coverage. Four Leaf's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.47 and 12.03, respectively. We have considered Four Leaf's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Four Leaf is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Four Leaf Acquisition is based on 3 months time horizon.
Four Leaf Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Four Leaf is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Four Leaf backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Four Leaf, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.75 | 11.75 | 0.00 |
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Four Leaf Hype Timeline
Four Leaf Acquisition is currently traded for 11.75. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Four is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Four Leaf is about 171.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.76. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Four Leaf to cross-verify your projections.Four Leaf Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Four Leaf's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Four Leaf's future price movements. Getting to know how Four Leaf's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Four Leaf may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DMYY | dMY Squared Technology | 0.33 | 9 per month | 1.66 | (0.03) | 2.61 | (3.40) | 10.88 | |
| BKHA | Black Hawk Acquisition | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.54 | (0.04) | 1.23 | (1.13) | 6.07 | |
| ESHA | ESH Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 8 per month | 3.84 | 0.03 | 7.48 | (5.13) | 53.87 | |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 0.29 | (0.19) | 0.96 | |
| FTII | Futuretech II Acquisition | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WINV | WinVest Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TBMC | Trailblazer Merger | 0.04 | 9 per month | 1.84 | 0.03 | 4.35 | (3.84) | 17.45 | |
| QETA | Quetta Acquisition | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.74 | (0.06) | 1.65 | (1.14) | 7.10 | |
| ATMC | AlphaTime Acquisition Corp | 1.30 | 10 per month | 0.66 | 0.11 | 1.90 | (1.46) | 21.35 | |
| RTAC | Renatus Tactical Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.81 | (1.30) | 4.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Four Leaf
For every potential investor in Four, whether a beginner or expert, Four Leaf's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Four Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Four. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Four Leaf's price trends.Four Leaf Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Four Leaf stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Four Leaf could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Four Leaf by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Four Leaf Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Four Leaf stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Four Leaf shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Four Leaf stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Four Leaf Acquisition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Four Leaf Risk Indicators
The analysis of Four Leaf's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Four Leaf's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting four stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0649 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2676 | |||
| Variance | 0.0716 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Four Leaf
The number of cover stories for Four Leaf depends on current market conditions and Four Leaf's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Four Leaf is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Four Leaf's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Four Leaf Short Properties
Four Leaf's future price predictability will typically decrease when Four Leaf's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Four Leaf Acquisition often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Four Leaf's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Four Leaf's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28.4 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Four Leaf to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Four Leaf. If investors know Four will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Four Leaf listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Four Leaf Acquisition is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Four that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Four Leaf's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Four Leaf's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Four Leaf's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Four Leaf's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Four Leaf's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Four Leaf is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Four Leaf's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.