Nicholas Global Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GIAX Etf | 16.56 0.14 0.84% |
Nicholas Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Nicholas Global's share price is at 50. This usually indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Nicholas Global, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Nicholas Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nicholas Global Equity from the perspective of Nicholas Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nicholas Global Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 16.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.13. Nicholas Global after-hype prediction price | USD 16.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Nicholas | Build AI portfolio with Nicholas Etf |
Nicholas Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Nicholas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nicholas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nicholas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nicholas Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nicholas Global Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 16.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nicholas Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nicholas Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nicholas Global Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Nicholas Global | Nicholas Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Nicholas Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nicholas Global's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nicholas Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.24 and 17.72, respectively. We have considered Nicholas Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nicholas Global etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nicholas Global etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2911 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2118 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.1287 |
Predictive Modules for Nicholas Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nicholas Global Equity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nicholas Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Nicholas Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nicholas Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Nicholas Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Nicholas Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Nicholas Global's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nicholas Global's historical news coverage. Nicholas Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.32 and 17.80, respectively. We have considered Nicholas Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Nicholas Global is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nicholas Global Equity is based on 3 months time horizon.
Nicholas Global Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Nicholas Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nicholas Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nicholas Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 2 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.56 | 16.56 | 0.00 |
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Nicholas Global Hype Timeline
Nicholas Global Equity is currently traded for 16.56. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. Nicholas is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Nicholas Global is about 35.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.53. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nicholas Global to cross-verify your projections.Nicholas Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Nicholas Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nicholas Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Nicholas Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nicholas Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VEGA | AdvisorShares STAR Global | 0.08 | 5 per month | 0.55 | (0.06) | 0.96 | (0.88) | 2.44 | |
| SPXE | ProShares SP 500 | 0.12 | 4 per month | 0.78 | (0.04) | 1.15 | (1.44) | 3.88 | |
| MARW | Allianzim Large Cap | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.10 | (0.22) | 0.36 | (0.44) | 1.09 | |
| PHDG | Invesco SP 500 | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.60 | (0.10) | 0.99 | (0.84) | 3.77 | |
| MAYW | AIM ETF Products | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 0.27 | (0.27) | 0.76 | |
| XBOC | Innovator ETFs Trust | 0.09 | 3 per month | 0.33 | (0.11) | 0.61 | (0.57) | 2.20 | |
| THIR | THOR Financial Technologies | 0.06 | 1 per month | 0.73 | (0.03) | 1.25 | (1.31) | 3.40 | |
| PRNT | The 3D Printing | 0.42 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.05 | (2.09) | 4.54 | |
| LCR | Managed Portfolio Series | (10.28) | 1 per month | 0.32 | (0.06) | 0.78 | (0.72) | 1.78 | |
| UDIV | Franklin Core Dividend | (25.02) | 1 per month | 0.77 | (0.03) | 1.00 | (1.28) | 3.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for Nicholas Global
For every potential investor in Nicholas, whether a beginner or expert, Nicholas Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nicholas Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nicholas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nicholas Global's price trends.Nicholas Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nicholas Global etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nicholas Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nicholas Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nicholas Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nicholas Global etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nicholas Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nicholas Global etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Nicholas Global Equity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1303.16 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.70) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.65 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.62 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.16) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.81 |
Nicholas Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nicholas Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nicholas Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nicholas etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9288 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Nicholas Global
The number of cover stories for Nicholas Global depends on current market conditions and Nicholas Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nicholas Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nicholas Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nicholas Global to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
The market value of Nicholas Global Equity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nicholas that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nicholas Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nicholas Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nicholas Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nicholas Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nicholas Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nicholas Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nicholas Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.