Gossamer Bio Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GOSS Stock | USD 2.66 0.04 1.48% |
Gossamer Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the RSI of Gossamer Bio's share price is approaching 47. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gossamer Bio, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.19) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.71) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.58) | Wall Street Target Price 9.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.20) |
Using Gossamer Bio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gossamer Bio from the perspective of Gossamer Bio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Gossamer Bio using Gossamer Bio's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Gossamer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Gossamer Bio's stock price.
Gossamer Bio Implied Volatility | 3.87 |
Gossamer Bio's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Gossamer Bio stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Gossamer Bio's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Gossamer Bio stock will not fluctuate a lot when Gossamer Bio's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gossamer Bio on the next trading day is expected to be 3.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.79. Gossamer Bio after-hype prediction price | USD 2.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gossamer Bio to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Gossamer contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Gossamer Bio will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.24% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Gossamer Bio trading at USD 2.66, that is roughly USD 0.006434 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Gossamer Bio's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Gossamer Bio options at the current volatility level of 3.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Gossamer Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Gossamer Bio's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Gossamer Bio's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Gossamer Bio stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Gossamer Bio's open interest, investors have to compare it to Gossamer Bio's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Gossamer Bio is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Gossamer. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Gossamer Bio Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gossamer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gossamer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gossamer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Gossamer Bio's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 26.3 M | Current Value 8.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 144.2 M |
Gossamer Bio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gossamer Bio on the next trading day is expected to be 3.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gossamer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gossamer Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gossamer Bio Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gossamer Bio | Gossamer Bio Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gossamer Bio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gossamer Bio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gossamer Bio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.93, respectively. We have considered Gossamer Bio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gossamer Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gossamer Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0581 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1095 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0377 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.7909 |
Predictive Modules for Gossamer Bio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gossamer Bio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gossamer Bio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gossamer Bio After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gossamer Bio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gossamer Bio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gossamer Bio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gossamer Bio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gossamer Bio's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gossamer Bio's historical news coverage. Gossamer Bio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.13 and 7.49, respectively. We have considered Gossamer Bio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gossamer Bio is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gossamer Bio is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gossamer Bio Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gossamer Bio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gossamer Bio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gossamer Bio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 4.87 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.66 | 2.66 | 0.00 |
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Gossamer Bio Hype Timeline
Gossamer Bio is currently traded for 2.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Gossamer is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gossamer Bio is about 9018.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.64. About 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.69. Gossamer Bio had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gossamer Bio to cross-verify your projections.Gossamer Bio Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gossamer Bio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gossamer Bio's future price movements. Getting to know how Gossamer Bio's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gossamer Bio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KALV | Kalvista Pharmaceuticals | 0.21 | 12 per month | 3.21 | 0.1 | 8.43 | (5.92) | 25.15 | |
| FDMT | 4D Molecular Therapeutics | 0.21 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.07 | (9.30) | 33.45 | |
| OLMA | Olema Pharmaceuticals | (0.18) | 11 per month | 2.77 | 0.14 | 9.82 | (5.86) | 145.73 | |
| VTYX | Ventyx Biosciences | (1.59) | 10 per month | 3.58 | 0.21 | 14.60 | (6.90) | 86.34 | |
| LXRX | Lexicon Pharmaceuticals | 0.05 | 9 per month | 3.85 | 0.03 | 9.86 | (6.49) | 22.57 | |
| RIGL | Rigel Pharmaceuticals | 0.21 | 26 per month | 3.80 | 0.06 | 8.66 | (7.41) | 44.65 | |
| PRTA | Prothena plc | 0.21 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.10 | (3.82) | 12.28 | |
| CRVS | Corvus Pharmaceuticals | 0.34 | 7 per month | 2.61 | 0.13 | 9.63 | (5.51) | 167.61 | |
| RAPT | RAPT Therapeutics | 0.21 | 2 per month | 3.62 | 0.12 | 7.87 | (6.86) | 64.03 | |
| RGNX | Regenxbio | (0.21) | 8 per month | 4.24 | 0.02 | 7.94 | (6.66) | 23.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gossamer Bio
For every potential investor in Gossamer, whether a beginner or expert, Gossamer Bio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gossamer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gossamer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gossamer Bio's price trends.Gossamer Bio Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gossamer Bio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gossamer Bio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gossamer Bio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gossamer Bio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gossamer Bio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gossamer Bio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gossamer Bio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gossamer Bio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 141151.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.29) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.71 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.69 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.26 |
Gossamer Bio Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gossamer Bio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gossamer Bio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gossamer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.9 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.24 | |||
| Variance | 27.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 24.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gossamer Bio
The number of cover stories for Gossamer Bio depends on current market conditions and Gossamer Bio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gossamer Bio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gossamer Bio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gossamer Bio Short Properties
Gossamer Bio's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gossamer Bio's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gossamer Bio often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gossamer Bio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gossamer Bio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 226.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 294.5 M |
Additional Tools for Gossamer Stock Analysis
When running Gossamer Bio's price analysis, check to measure Gossamer Bio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gossamer Bio is operating at the current time. Most of Gossamer Bio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gossamer Bio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gossamer Bio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gossamer Bio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.