Graf Global Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GRAF Stock | USD 10.75 0.05 0.47% |
Graf Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Graf Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 28th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Graf Global's share price is at 53. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Graf Global, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) |
Using Graf Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Graf Global Corp from the perspective of Graf Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Graf Global Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.95. Graf Global after-hype prediction price | USD 10.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graf Global to cross-verify your projections. Graf Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Graf price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Graf using various technical indicators. When you analyze Graf charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Graf Global Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Graf Global's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 431.7 K | Current Value 523.8 K | Quarterly Volatility 634.9 K |
Graf Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Graf Global Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Graf Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Graf Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Graf Global Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Graf Global | Graf Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Graf Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Graf Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Graf Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.39 and 11.10, respectively. We have considered Graf Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Graf Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Graf Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7551 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0155 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.9479 |
Predictive Modules for Graf Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graf Global Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Graf Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Graf Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Graf Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Graf Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Graf Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Graf Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Graf Global's historical news coverage. Graf Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.39 and 11.11, respectively. We have considered Graf Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Graf Global is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Graf Global Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Graf Global Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Graf Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Graf Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Graf Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.75 | 10.75 | 0.00 |
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Graf Global Hype Timeline
Graf Global Corp is currently traded for 10.75. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Graf is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Graf Global is about 194.59%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.75. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.32. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Graf Global Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graf Global to cross-verify your projections.Graf Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Graf Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Graf Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Graf Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Graf Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ICL | ICL Israel Chemicals | (0.02) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.07 | (3.62) | 21.00 | |
| CEGHF | China Education Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HG | Hamilton Insurance Group | (0.54) | 11 per month | 1.19 | 0.05 | 2.26 | (2.26) | 12.81 | |
| CILJF | China Life Insurance | (0.12) | 6 per month | 2.77 | 0.13 | 5.85 | (4.35) | 13.26 | |
| EDMCQ | Education Management Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | 2.36 | 7 per month | 1.51 | (0.05) | 1.95 | (1.75) | 5.68 | |
| TAL | TAL Education Group | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.69 | (3.66) | 14.18 | |
| BWIN | The Baldwin Insurance | (0.25) | 10 per month | 3.06 | 0.04 | 4.87 | (5.58) | 19.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Graf Global
For every potential investor in Graf, whether a beginner or expert, Graf Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Graf Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Graf. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Graf Global's price trends.Graf Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Graf Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Graf Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graf Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Graf Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Graf Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Graf Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Graf Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Graf Global Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Graf Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Graf Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Graf Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graf stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2183 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2713 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3476 | |||
| Variance | 0.1209 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1703 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0736 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Graf Global
The number of cover stories for Graf Global depends on current market conditions and Graf Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Graf Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Graf Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Graf Global Short Properties
Graf Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Graf Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Graf Global Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Graf Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graf Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 479.6 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graf Global to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Diversified Capital Markets space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graf Global. If investors know Graf will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graf Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Graf Global Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graf that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graf Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graf Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graf Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graf Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graf Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graf Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graf Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.