MERCK Kommanditgesells Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MKGAF Stock | USD 152.25 2.93 1.96% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf on the next trading day is expected to be 150.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 157.26. MERCK Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MERCK Kommanditgesells' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 22nd of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of MERCK Kommanditgesells' share price is at 55. This indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MERCK Kommanditgesells, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MERCK Kommanditgesells hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf from the perspective of MERCK Kommanditgesells response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf on the next trading day is expected to be 150.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 157.26. MERCK Kommanditgesells after-hype prediction price | USD 152.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MERCK |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MERCK price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MERCK using various technical indicators. When you analyze MERCK charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf on the next trading day is expected to be 150.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.58, mean absolute percentage error of 11.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 157.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MERCK Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MERCK Kommanditgesells' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MERCK Kommanditgesells Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MERCK Kommanditgesells | MERCK Kommanditgesells Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MERCK Kommanditgesells' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MERCK Kommanditgesells' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 147.32 and 154.23, respectively. We have considered MERCK Kommanditgesells' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MERCK Kommanditgesells pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MERCK Kommanditgesells pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5208 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.578 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0185 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 157.2591 |
Predictive Modules for MERCK Kommanditgesells
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MERCK Kommanditgesells. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MERCK Kommanditgesells After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MERCK Kommanditgesells at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MERCK Kommanditgesells or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of MERCK Kommanditgesells, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MERCK Kommanditgesells' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MERCK Kommanditgesells' historical news coverage. MERCK Kommanditgesells' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 148.80 and 155.70, respectively. We have considered MERCK Kommanditgesells' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MERCK Kommanditgesells is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MERCK Kommanditgesells is based on 3 months time horizon.
MERCK Kommanditgesells Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MERCK Kommanditgesells is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MERCK Kommanditgesells backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MERCK Kommanditgesells, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 3.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
152.25 | 152.25 | 0.00 |
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MERCK Kommanditgesells Hype Timeline
MERCK Kommanditgesells is now traded for 152.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. MERCK is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on MERCK Kommanditgesells is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 152.25. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of MERCK Kommanditgesells was now reported as 64.91. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.58. MERCK Kommanditgesells last dividend was issued on the 25th of April 2022. The entity had 2:1 split on the 30th of June 2014. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MERCK Kommanditgesells to cross-verify your projections.MERCK Kommanditgesells Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MERCK Kommanditgesells' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MERCK Kommanditgesells' future price movements. Getting to know how MERCK Kommanditgesells' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MERCK Kommanditgesells may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IPSEY | Ipsen SA ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.1 | 4.67 | (2.11) | 11.83 | |
| CMXHF | CSL Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.03 | (6.69) | 28.21 | |
| HOCPY | Hoya Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.69 | 0.0004 | 3.27 | (2.41) | 9.88 | |
| HLNCF | Haleon plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.89 | 0.01 | 4.25 | (4.20) | 9.42 | |
| CHALF | Chalice Brands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SEMHF | Siemens Healthineers AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.10 | (4.91) | 10.02 | |
| DSNKY | Daiichi Sankyo Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.96 | (3.95) | 10.19 | |
| ARGNF | argenx SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.95 | |
| DSKYF | Daiichi Sankyo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 7.25 | (6.64) | 17.89 | |
| WUXIF | WuXi AppTec Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for MERCK Kommanditgesells
For every potential investor in MERCK, whether a beginner or expert, MERCK Kommanditgesells' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MERCK Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MERCK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MERCK Kommanditgesells' price trends.MERCK Kommanditgesells Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MERCK Kommanditgesells pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MERCK Kommanditgesells could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MERCK Kommanditgesells by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MERCK Kommanditgesells pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MERCK Kommanditgesells shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MERCK Kommanditgesells pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 152.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 152.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.47 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.93 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 55.06 |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Risk Indicators
The analysis of MERCK Kommanditgesells' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MERCK Kommanditgesells' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merck pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.45 | |||
| Variance | 11.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MERCK Kommanditgesells
The number of cover stories for MERCK Kommanditgesells depends on current market conditions and MERCK Kommanditgesells' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MERCK Kommanditgesells is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MERCK Kommanditgesells' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in MERCK Pink Sheet
MERCK Kommanditgesells financial ratios help investors to determine whether MERCK Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MERCK with respect to the benefits of owning MERCK Kommanditgesells security.