Madison Square Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| MSGS Stock | USD 285.64 0.41 0.14% |
Madison Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Madison Square's share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Madison, making its price go up or down. Momentum 72
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Madison Square hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Madison Square Garden from the perspective of Madison Square response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Madison Square Garden on the next trading day is expected to be 292.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 242.59. Madison Square after-hype prediction price | USD 285.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Madison Square to cross-verify your projections. Madison Square Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Madison price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Madison using various technical indicators. When you analyze Madison charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Madison Square Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Madison Square Garden on the next trading day is expected to be 292.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.98, mean absolute percentage error of 22.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 242.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Madison Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Madison Square's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Madison Square Stock Forecast Pattern
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Madison Square Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Madison Square's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Madison Square's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 290.61 and 293.44, respectively. We have considered Madison Square's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Madison Square stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Madison Square stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.2432 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.9769 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0161 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 242.5932 |
Predictive Modules for Madison Square
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Madison Square Garden. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Madison Square After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Madison Square at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Madison Square or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Madison Square, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Madison Square Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Madison Square's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Madison Square's historical news coverage. Madison Square's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 284.22 and 287.06, respectively. We have considered Madison Square's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Madison Square is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Madison Square Garden is based on 3 months time horizon.
Madison Square Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Madison Square is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Madison Square backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Madison Square, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 1.42 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
285.64 | 285.64 | 0.00 |
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Madison Square Hype Timeline
Madison Square Garden is now traded for 285.64. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.32. Madison is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.48%. %. The volatility of related hype on Madison Square is about 209.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 285.32. About 93.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.57. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Madison Square Garden recorded a loss per share of 1.0. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of October 2022. The firm had 1402:1000 split on the 20th of April 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Madison Square to cross-verify your projections.Madison Square Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Madison Square's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Madison Square's future price movements. Getting to know how Madison Square's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Madison Square may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NXST | Nexstar Broadcasting Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.04 | 3.01 | (2.52) | 7.04 | |
| GSAT | Globalstar Common Stock | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.26 | 0.07 | 7.44 | (7.41) | 24.72 | |
| WPP | WPP PLC ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.54 | 0.06 | 5.16 | (4.82) | 13.51 | |
| TKC | Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.10 | 2.59 | (1.77) | 7.49 | |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holding | (6.77) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.55 | (2.39) | 6.78 | |
| MANU | Manchester United | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.04 | 2.45 | (1.93) | 4.94 | |
| QMMM | QMMM Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AD | Array Digital Infrastructure | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.85 | 0.10 | 3.45 | (3.12) | 10.82 | |
| BATRA | Atlanta Braves Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | (0.03) | 1.08 | (1.56) | 3.94 | |
| SPHR | Sphere Entertainment Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | 0.22 | 4.94 | (2.63) | 9.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Madison Square
For every potential investor in Madison, whether a beginner or expert, Madison Square's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Madison Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Madison. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Madison Square's price trends.Madison Square Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Madison Square stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Madison Square could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Madison Square by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Madison Square Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Madison Square stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Madison Square shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Madison Square stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Madison Square Garden entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3264.02 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.08) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 285.31 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 285.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.41) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 72.07 |
Madison Square Risk Indicators
The analysis of Madison Square's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Madison Square's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting madison stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5462 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Variance | 2.01 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2984 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Madison Square
The number of cover stories for Madison Square depends on current market conditions and Madison Square's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Madison Square is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Madison Square's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Madison Square Short Properties
Madison Square's future price predictability will typically decrease when Madison Square's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Madison Square Garden often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Madison Square's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Madison Square's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 153.2 M |
Additional Tools for Madison Stock Analysis
When running Madison Square's price analysis, check to measure Madison Square's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Madison Square is operating at the current time. Most of Madison Square's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Madison Square's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Madison Square's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Madison Square to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.