Roundhill MSTR Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MSTW Etf | 9.62 0.23 2.34% |
Roundhill Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength momentum indicator of Roundhill MSTR's share price is approaching 39. This indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Roundhill MSTR, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Roundhill MSTR hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay from the perspective of Roundhill MSTR response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay on the next trading day is expected to be 9.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.88. Roundhill MSTR after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Roundhill MSTR Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Roundhill price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Roundhill using various technical indicators. When you analyze Roundhill charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Roundhill MSTR Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay on the next trading day is expected to be 9.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Roundhill Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Roundhill MSTR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Roundhill MSTR Etf Forecast Pattern
Roundhill MSTR Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Roundhill MSTR's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Roundhill MSTR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.94 and 14.30, respectively. We have considered Roundhill MSTR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Roundhill MSTR etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Roundhill MSTR etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1538 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1285 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4898 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.041 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.88 |
Predictive Modules for Roundhill MSTR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Roundhill MSTR's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Roundhill MSTR Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Roundhill MSTR at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Roundhill MSTR or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Roundhill MSTR, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Roundhill MSTR Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Roundhill MSTR is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Roundhill MSTR backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Roundhill MSTR, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.00 | 4.68 | 0.00 | 3.67 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Roundhill MSTR Hype Timeline
Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay is now traded for 9.62. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 3.67. Roundhill is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Roundhill MSTR is about 127.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.29. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out fundamental analysis of Roundhill MSTR to check your projections.Roundhill MSTR Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Roundhill MSTR's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Roundhill MSTR's future price movements. Getting to know how Roundhill MSTR's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Roundhill MSTR may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EAPR | Innovator MSCI Emerging | 0.08 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.27 | (0.27) | 0.85 | |
| EOCT | Innovator ETFs Trust | 0.19 | 5 per month | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.71 | (0.54) | 1.64 | |
| PSMD | Pacer Funds Trust | 0.04 | 1 per month | 0.14 | (0.08) | 0.55 | (0.34) | 1.86 | |
| MAVF | EA Series Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.73 | 0.07 | 1.43 | (1.63) | 3.52 | |
| FSZ | First Trust Switzerland | (7.63) | 2 per month | 0.63 | 0.04 | 1.30 | (1.20) | 3.41 | |
| JULT | AIM ETF Products | (15.31) | 8 per month | 0.36 | (0.08) | 0.55 | (0.70) | 2.16 | |
| PSMR | Pacer Swan SOS | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 0.34 | (0.27) | 0.89 | |
| SJB | ProShares Short High | 59.14 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.50) | 0.20 | (0.26) | 0.85 | |
| RFDA | RiverFront Dynamic Dividend | 0.19 | 6 per month | 0.65 | (0.05) | 0.91 | (1.23) | 3.65 | |
| VABS | Virtus Newfleet ABSMBS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.67) | 0.17 | (0.12) | 0.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for Roundhill MSTR
For every potential investor in Roundhill, whether a beginner or expert, Roundhill MSTR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Roundhill Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Roundhill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Roundhill MSTR's price trends.Roundhill MSTR Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Roundhill MSTR etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Roundhill MSTR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Roundhill MSTR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Roundhill MSTR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Roundhill MSTR etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Roundhill MSTR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Roundhill MSTR etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 16038.45 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.37) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.84 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.34) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.23) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.63 |
Roundhill MSTR Risk Indicators
The analysis of Roundhill MSTR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Roundhill MSTR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting roundhill etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.77 | |||
| Variance | 22.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Roundhill MSTR
The number of cover stories for Roundhill MSTR depends on current market conditions and Roundhill MSTR's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Roundhill MSTR is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Roundhill MSTR's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out fundamental analysis of Roundhill MSTR to check your projections. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
The market value of Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Roundhill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Roundhill MSTR's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Roundhill MSTR's true underlying value. Investment professionals apply varied valuation frameworks to compute inherent worth and acquire positions when market prices trade at discounts to calculated value. Because Roundhill MSTR's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Roundhill MSTR's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Roundhill MSTR's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Roundhill MSTR represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Roundhill MSTR's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.