MTY Food Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| MTY Stock | CAD 42.41 0.50 1.19% |
MTY Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although MTY Food's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MTY Food's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MTY Food fundamentals over time.
The relative strength indicator of MTY Food's stock price is about 64. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling MTY, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.3417 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.2683 | Wall Street Target Price 43.3333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.24 |
Using MTY Food hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MTY Food Group from the perspective of MTY Food response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MTY Food Group on the next trading day is expected to be 43.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.38. MTY Food after-hype prediction price | CAD 42.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MTY |
MTY Food Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MTY price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MTY using various technical indicators. When you analyze MTY charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MTY Food Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MTY Food Group on the next trading day is expected to be 43.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MTY Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MTY Food's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MTY Food Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MTY Food | MTY Food Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MTY Food Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MTY Food's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MTY Food's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.43 and 46.31, respectively. We have considered MTY Food's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MTY Food stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MTY Food stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4138 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.619 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.3792 |
Predictive Modules for MTY Food
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MTY Food Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MTY Food After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MTY Food at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MTY Food or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MTY Food, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MTY Food Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MTY Food's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MTY Food's historical news coverage. MTY Food's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.86 and 44.74, respectively. We have considered MTY Food's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MTY Food is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MTY Food Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
MTY Food Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MTY Food is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MTY Food backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MTY Food, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 2.44 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.41 | 42.30 | 0.26 |
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MTY Food Hype Timeline
MTY Food Group is now traded for 42.41on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. MTY is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 42.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.4%. The volatility of related hype on MTY Food is about 2440.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.37. About 17.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.19. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MTY Food Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.02. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of February 2026. The firm had 1:5000 split on the 21st of December 2005. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MTY Food to cross-verify your projections.MTY Food Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MTY Food's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MTY Food's future price movements. Getting to know how MTY Food's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MTY Food may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AW | A W FOOD | 0.05 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.99 | (2.06) | 6.49 | |
| MRE | Martinrea International | (0.05) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.98 | (2.12) | 8.42 | |
| PZA | Pizza Pizza Royalty | 0.1 | 5 per month | 1.11 | (0.01) | 1.14 | (1.12) | 4.11 | |
| ACQ | Autocanada | (0.17) | 8 per month | 3.07 | 0.01 | 4.12 | (3.27) | 15.89 | |
| PBL | Pollard Banknote Limited | (0.95) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.85 | (2.73) | 9.09 | |
| TWC | TWC Enterprises | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.66 | 0.08 | 2.15 | (1.71) | 7.71 | |
| GBT | BMTC Group | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.57 | (3.61) | 10.38 | |
| ODD | Odd Burger Corp | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 12.50 | (12.50) | 67.50 | |
| CKI | Clarke Inc | 0.03 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.42 | (4.09) | 9.51 | |
| KITS | Kits Eyecare | (0.02) | 7 per month | 2.24 | 0.16 | 6.71 | (3.25) | 18.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for MTY Food
For every potential investor in MTY, whether a beginner or expert, MTY Food's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MTY Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MTY. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MTY Food's price trends.MTY Food Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MTY Food stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MTY Food could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MTY Food by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MTY Food Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MTY Food stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MTY Food shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MTY Food stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MTY Food Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MTY Food Risk Indicators
The analysis of MTY Food's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MTY Food's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Variance | 5.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.58) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MTY Food
The number of cover stories for MTY Food depends on current market conditions and MTY Food's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MTY Food is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MTY Food's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MTY Food Short Properties
MTY Food's future price predictability will typically decrease when MTY Food's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MTY Food Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MTY Food's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MTY Food's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 50.4 M |
Other Information on Investing in MTY Stock
MTY Food financial ratios help investors to determine whether MTY Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MTY with respect to the benefits of owning MTY Food security.