Navan Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NAVN Stock | 14.98 0.11 0.73% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Navan Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 12.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.75. Navan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Navan's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Navan's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Navan fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Navan's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.40) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.14) | Wall Street Target Price 25.3333 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.298 |
Using Navan hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Navan Class A from the perspective of Navan response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Navan using Navan's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Navan using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Navan's stock price.
Navan Short Interest
An investor who is long Navan may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Navan and may potentially protect profits, hedge Navan with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 16.8493 | Short Percent 0.0142 | Short Ratio 0.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 987.5 K | Shares Short 4.2 M |
Navan Class A Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Navan's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Navan. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Navan can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Navan Class A. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Navan Implied Volatility | 1.37 |
Navan's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Navan Class A stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Navan's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Navan stock will not fluctuate a lot when Navan's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Navan Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 12.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.75. Navan after-hype prediction price | USD 15.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navan to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Navan contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Navan Class A will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0856% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Navan trading at USD 14.98, that is roughly USD 0.0128 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Navan's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Navan Class A options at the current volatility level of 1.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Navan Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Navan's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Navan's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Navan stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Navan's open interest, investors have to compare it to Navan's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Navan is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Navan. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Navan Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Navan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Navan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Navan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Navan Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Navan's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 351.7 M | Current Value 312.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 25.5 M |
Navan Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Navan Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 12.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78, mean absolute percentage error of 0.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Navan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Navan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Navan Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Navan | Navan Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Navan Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Navan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Navan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.58 and 17.92, respectively. We have considered Navan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Navan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Navan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.3462 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7754 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0499 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.7481 |
Predictive Modules for Navan
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Navan Class A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Navan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Navan After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Navan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Navan or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Navan, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Navan Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Navan's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Navan's historical news coverage. Navan's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.97 and 20.31, respectively. We have considered Navan's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Navan is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Navan Class A is based on 3 months time horizon.
Navan Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Navan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Navan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Navan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 5.17 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.98 | 15.14 | 1.07 |
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Navan Hype Timeline
Navan Class A is now traded for 14.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Navan is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 15.14 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.07%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Navan is about 2651.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.91. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 536.84 M. Net Loss for the year was (181.08 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 432.67 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navan to cross-verify your projections.Navan Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Navan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Navan's future price movements. Getting to know how Navan's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Navan may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OS | OneStream Class A | (0.03) | 9 per month | 2.57 | 0.1 | 6.39 | (4.81) | 29.57 | |
| VIA | Via Transportation | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 6.02 | (7.74) | 18.71 | |
| CLBT | Cellebrite DI | 0.22 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.03 | (4.33) | 25.88 | |
| ZETA | Zeta Global Holdings | (2.04) | 3 per month | 3.62 | 0.06 | 8.32 | (5.77) | 28.98 | |
| GBTG | Global Business Travel | 0.70 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.82 | (4.10) | 13.45 | |
| COMP | Compass | (0.11) | 25 per month | 1.30 | 0.28 | 7.28 | (3.22) | 14.23 | |
| DGNX | Diginex Limited Ordinary | 0.64 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 15.63 | (21.43) | 58.12 | |
| VRNS | Varonis Systems | (0.96) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.40 | (2.93) | 50.43 | |
| PTRN | Pattern Group Series | 0.21 | 10 per month | 3.98 | 0.02 | 9.15 | (6.68) | 30.40 | |
| CALX | Calix Inc | (0.49) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.63 | (4.18) | 14.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Navan
For every potential investor in Navan, whether a beginner or expert, Navan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Navan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Navan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Navan's price trends.Navan Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Navan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Navan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Navan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Navan Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Navan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Navan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Navan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Navan Class A entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 68803.6 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.15) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.94 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) |
Navan Risk Indicators
The analysis of Navan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Navan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting navan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.17 | |||
| Variance | 26.76 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Navan
The number of cover stories for Navan depends on current market conditions and Navan's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Navan is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Navan's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Navan Short Properties
Navan's future price predictability will typically decrease when Navan's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Navan Class A often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Navan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Navan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 248.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 305.8 M | |
| Shares Float | 22.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navan to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Navan. If investors know Navan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Navan listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Navan Class A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Navan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Navan's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Navan's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Navan's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Navan's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Navan's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Navan is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Navan's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.