NL Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NL Stock | USD 6.22 0.08 1.27% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NL Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 6.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.55. NL Industries Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although NL Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of NL Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NL Industries fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of NL Industries' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.872 | Wall Street Target Price 6 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.187 |
Using NL Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NL Industries from the perspective of NL Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NL Industries using NL Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NL Industries using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NL Industries' stock price.
NL Industries Implied Volatility | 1.53 |
NL Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NL Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NL Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NL Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when NL Industries' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NL Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 6.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.55. NL Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 6.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
NL Industries | Build AI portfolio with NL Industries Stock |
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 NL Industries Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NL Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in NL Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for NL Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NL Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to NL Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NL Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NL Industries. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
NL Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NL Industries price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NL Industries using various technical indicators. When you analyze NL Industries charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NL Industries Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the NL Industries' financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1987-12-31 | Previous Quarter 111.5 M | Current Value 101.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 103 M |
NL Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NL Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 6.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NL Industries Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NL Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NL Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NL Industries | NL Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NL Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NL Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NL Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.26 and 9.61, respectively. We have considered NL Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NL Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NL Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6634 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.154 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0271 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.5453 |
Predictive Modules for NL Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NL Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NL Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NL Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NL Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NL Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NL Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NL Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NL Industries' historical news coverage. NL Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.02 and 9.36, respectively. We have considered NL Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NL Industries is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NL Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
NL Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NL Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NL Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NL Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.17 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.22 | 6.19 | 0.48 |
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NL Industries Hype Timeline
As of January 24, 2026 NL Industries is listed for 6.22. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. NL Industries is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.19. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.48%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on NL Industries is about 6096.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.23. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.81. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. NL Industries last dividend was issued on the 21st of November 2025. The entity had 4:10 split on the 23rd of December 1988. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NL Industries to cross-verify your projections.NL Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NL Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NL Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how NL Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NL Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CIX | CompX International | 0.05 | 3 per month | 2.02 | (0) | 3.06 | (2.51) | 19.01 | |
| MG | Mistras Group | 0.31 | 7 per month | 1.54 | 0.17 | 4.20 | (2.81) | 27.65 | |
| FSTR | LB Foster | 0.06 | 14 per month | 1.55 | 0.04 | 3.75 | (2.79) | 11.26 | |
| PKOH | Park Ohio Holdings | 0.29 | 7 per month | 2.35 | 0.07 | 4.77 | (3.60) | 14.74 | |
| BNC | CEA Industries | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.58 | (9.22) | 35.96 | |
| RLGT | Radiant Logistics | 0.05 | 3 per month | 1.72 | 0.03 | 3.34 | (3.07) | 8.55 | |
| QUAD | Quad Graphics | 0.03 | 8 per month | 3.18 | 0.02 | 3.33 | (4.72) | 14.67 | |
| CVEO | Civeo Corp | 0.06 | 6 per month | 1.69 | 0.07 | 2.75 | (1.82) | 14.66 | |
| GASS | StealthGas | (0.27) | 19 per month | 1.02 | 0.13 | 2.53 | (1.91) | 8.25 | |
| OFLX | Omega Flex | 0.05 | 14 per month | 1.64 | 0.08 | 3.87 | (2.79) | 11.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for NL Industries
For every potential investor in NL Industries, whether a beginner or expert, NL Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NL Industries Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NL Industries. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NL Industries' price trends.NL Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NL Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NL Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NL Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NL Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NL Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NL Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NL Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NL Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 742.09 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.44) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.24 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) |
NL Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of NL Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NL Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nl industries stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Variance | 10.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NL Industries
The number of cover stories for NL Industries depends on current market conditions and NL Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NL Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NL Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NL Industries Short Properties
NL Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when NL Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NL Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NL Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NL Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 163.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NL Industries to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy NL Industries Stock please use our How to buy in NL Industries Stock guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Commercial Services & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NL Industries. If investors know NL Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NL Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | Dividend Share 0.35 | Earnings Share 0.2 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.187 |
The market value of NL Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NL Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NL Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NL Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NL Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NL Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NL Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NL Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NL Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.