Optical Cable Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| OCC Stock | USD 4.39 0.10 2.23% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Optical Cable on the next trading day is expected to be 5.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.53. Optical Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Optical Cable stock prices and determine the direction of Optical Cable's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Optical Cable's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Optical Cable's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.228 |
Using Optical Cable hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Optical Cable from the perspective of Optical Cable response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Optical Cable on the next trading day is expected to be 5.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.53. Optical Cable after-hype prediction price | USD 4.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Optical Cable to cross-verify your projections. Optical Cable Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Optical price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Optical using various technical indicators. When you analyze Optical charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Optical Cable Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Optical Cable's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1996-04-30 | Previous Quarter 421.4 K | Current Value 238 K | Quarterly Volatility 1.4 M |
Optical Cable Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Optical Cable on the next trading day is expected to be 5.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Optical Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Optical Cable's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Optical Cable Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Optical Cable | Optical Cable Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Optical Cable Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Optical Cable's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Optical Cable's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 12.55, respectively. We have considered Optical Cable's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Optical Cable stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Optical Cable stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7772 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7344 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.5322 |
Predictive Modules for Optical Cable
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Optical Cable. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Optical Cable's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Optical Cable After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Optical Cable at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Optical Cable or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Optical Cable, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Optical Cable Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Optical Cable's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Optical Cable's historical news coverage. Optical Cable's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.22 and 11.09, respectively. We have considered Optical Cable's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Optical Cable is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Optical Cable is based on 3 months time horizon.
Optical Cable Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Optical Cable is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Optical Cable backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Optical Cable, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 6.72 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.39 | 4.40 | 0.23 |
|
Optical Cable Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Optical Cable is traded for 4.39. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Optical is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Optical Cable is about 74666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.38. The company reported the last year's revenue of 73.04 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.45 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 22.81 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Optical Cable to cross-verify your projections.Optical Cable Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Optical Cable's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Optical Cable's future price movements. Getting to know how Optical Cable's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Optical Cable may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMPG | Amplitech Group | (0.11) | 9 per month | 5.23 | 0.04 | 11.28 | (8.88) | 26.92 | |
| CMBM | Cambium Networks Corp | 0.1 | 7 per month | 7.40 | 0.11 | 27.12 | (13.22) | 407.58 | |
| FKWL | Franklin Wireless Corp | 0.02 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.56 | (3.75) | 9.54 | |
| REFR | Research Frontiers Incorporated | 0.08 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 10.83 | (8.43) | 36.36 | |
| WYY | Widepoint C | (0.04) | 24 per month | 3.60 | 0.07 | 8.55 | (6.84) | 21.92 | |
| MSAI | Infrared Cameras Holdings | (0.02) | 8 per month | 12.15 | 0.03 | 22.58 | (19.79) | 133.82 | |
| WBX | Wallbox NV | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 6.60 | (6.84) | 18.65 | |
| YIBO | Planet Image International | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.48 | (6.77) | 43.15 | |
| ZENV | Zenvia Inc | (0.21) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 4.67 | (6.43) | 15.64 | |
| MOB | Mobilicom Limited American | 0.02 | 24 per month | 7.08 | 0.02 | 11.31 | (11.92) | 34.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Optical Cable
For every potential investor in Optical, whether a beginner or expert, Optical Cable's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Optical Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Optical. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Optical Cable's price trends.Optical Cable Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Optical Cable stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Optical Cable could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Optical Cable by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Optical Cable Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Optical Cable stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Optical Cable shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Optical Cable stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Optical Cable entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 913.83 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.62) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
Optical Cable Risk Indicators
The analysis of Optical Cable's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Optical Cable's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting optical stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.71 | |||
| Variance | 44.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Optical Cable
The number of cover stories for Optical Cable depends on current market conditions and Optical Cable's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Optical Cable is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Optical Cable's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Optical Cable Short Properties
Optical Cable's future price predictability will typically decrease when Optical Cable's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Optical Cable often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Optical Cable's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Optical Cable's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 237.5 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Optical Cable to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Optical Stock refer to our How to Trade Optical Stock guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Optical Cable. If investors know Optical will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Optical Cable listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.14) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.228 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Optical Cable is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Optical that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Optical Cable's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Optical Cable's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Optical Cable's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Optical Cable's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Optical Cable's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Optical Cable is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Optical Cable's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.