Pebblebrook Hotel Stock Forward View
| PEB Stock | USD 11.42 0.10 0.87% |
Pebblebrook Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pebblebrook Hotel stock prices and determine the direction of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Pebblebrook Hotel's share price is approaching 49 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pebblebrook Hotel, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.28) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.71) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.54) | Wall Street Target Price 12.8571 |
Using Pebblebrook Hotel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust from the perspective of Pebblebrook Hotel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Pebblebrook Hotel using Pebblebrook Hotel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Pebblebrook using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Pebblebrook Hotel's stock price.
Pebblebrook Hotel Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Pebblebrook Hotel's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Pebblebrook. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Pebblebrook Hotel stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 10.5828 | Short Percent 0.2675 | Short Ratio 9.06 | Shares Short Prior Month 17.5 M | 50 Day MA 11.485 |
Pebblebrook Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 11.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.71.Pebblebrook Hotel Trust Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Pebblebrook Hotel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Pebblebrook. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Pebblebrook can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Pebblebrook Hotel Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Pebblebrook Hotel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Pebblebrook Hotel.
Pebblebrook Hotel Implied Volatility | 1.15 |
Pebblebrook Hotel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Pebblebrook Hotel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Pebblebrook Hotel stock will not fluctuate a lot when Pebblebrook Hotel's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 11.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.71. Pebblebrook Hotel after-hype prediction price | USD 11.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Pebblebrook | Build AI portfolio with Pebblebrook Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Pebblebrook contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Pebblebrook Hotel Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0719% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Pebblebrook Hotel trading at USD 11.42, that is roughly USD 0.008208 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Pebblebrook Hotel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Pebblebrook Hotel Trust options at the current volatility level of 1.15%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Pebblebrook Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Pebblebrook Hotel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Pebblebrook Hotel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Pebblebrook Hotel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Pebblebrook Hotel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Pebblebrook Hotel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Pebblebrook Hotel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Pebblebrook. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Pebblebrook Hotel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pebblebrook price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pebblebrook using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pebblebrook charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pebblebrook Hotel Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Pebblebrook Hotel's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2009-12-31 | Previous Quarter 256.1 M | Current Value 223.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 122.3 M |
Pebblebrook Hotel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 11.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.71.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pebblebrook Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pebblebrook Hotel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pebblebrook Hotel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pebblebrook Hotel | Pebblebrook Hotel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pebblebrook Hotel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pebblebrook Hotel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pebblebrook Hotel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.85 and 13.16, respectively. We have considered Pebblebrook Hotel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pebblebrook Hotel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pebblebrook Hotel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1868 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.205 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.707 |
Predictive Modules for Pebblebrook Hotel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pebblebrook Hotel Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pebblebrook Hotel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Pebblebrook Hotel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pebblebrook Hotel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pebblebrook Hotel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pebblebrook Hotel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pebblebrook Hotel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pebblebrook Hotel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pebblebrook Hotel's historical news coverage. Pebblebrook Hotel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.30 and 13.62, respectively. We have considered Pebblebrook Hotel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pebblebrook Hotel is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pebblebrook Hotel Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pebblebrook Hotel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pebblebrook Hotel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pebblebrook Hotel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.16 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.42 | 11.46 | 0.35 |
|
Pebblebrook Hotel Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is traded for 11.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Pebblebrook is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Pebblebrook Hotel is about 7476.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.42. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.45 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 16 K with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 347.65 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel to cross-verify your projections.Pebblebrook Hotel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pebblebrook Hotel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pebblebrook Hotel's future price movements. Getting to know how Pebblebrook Hotel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pebblebrook Hotel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RLJ | RLJ Lodging Trust | 0.17 | 10 per month | 1.27 | 0.03 | 3.08 | (2.28) | 8.37 | |
| XHR | Xenia Hotels Resorts | (0.14) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.1 | 3.01 | (2.13) | 7.84 | |
| CLDT | Chatham Lodging Trust | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.15 | 0.05 | 2.83 | (2.12) | 7.58 | |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.81 | (3.19) | 8.13 | |
| JBGS | JBG SMITH Properties | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 1.97 | (2.81) | 6.30 | |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | (0.04) | 10 per month | 1.60 | (0.03) | 2.66 | (2.77) | 6.97 | |
| UMH | UMH Properties | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.03 | 0.05 | 2.21 | (2.16) | 4.82 | |
| DRH | Diamondrock Hospitality | 0.01 | 12 per month | 1.23 | 0.12 | 3.33 | (2.49) | 11.87 | |
| SILA | Sila Realty Trust | (0.38) | 8 per month | 1.13 | (0.01) | 2.17 | (1.88) | 5.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pebblebrook Hotel
For every potential investor in Pebblebrook, whether a beginner or expert, Pebblebrook Hotel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pebblebrook Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pebblebrook. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pebblebrook Hotel's price trends.Pebblebrook Hotel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pebblebrook Hotel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pebblebrook Hotel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pebblebrook Hotel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pebblebrook Hotel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pebblebrook Hotel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pebblebrook Hotel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pebblebrook Hotel Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 28052.88 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.37) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.15 |
Pebblebrook Hotel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pebblebrook Hotel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pebblebrook stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Variance | 4.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pebblebrook Hotel
The number of cover stories for Pebblebrook Hotel depends on current market conditions and Pebblebrook Hotel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pebblebrook Hotel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pebblebrook Hotel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Pebblebrook Hotel Short Properties
Pebblebrook Hotel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pebblebrook Hotel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pebblebrook Hotel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pebblebrook Hotel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 119.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 206.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Hotel & Resort REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pebblebrook Hotel. Anticipated expansion of Pebblebrook directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Pebblebrook Hotel assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | Dividend Share 0.04 | Earnings Share (1.18) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
Investors evaluate Pebblebrook Hotel Trust using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Pebblebrook Hotel's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Pebblebrook Hotel's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Pebblebrook Hotel's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Pebblebrook Hotel should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Pebblebrook Hotel's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.