Pebblebrook Hotel Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| PEB Stock | USD 11.52 0.21 1.86% |
Pebblebrook Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pebblebrook Hotel stock prices and determine the direction of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Pebblebrook Hotel's share price is at 50 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pebblebrook Hotel, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Pebblebrook Hotel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust from the perspective of Pebblebrook Hotel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 11.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.64. Pebblebrook Hotel after-hype prediction price | USD 11.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Pebblebrook Hotel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pebblebrook price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pebblebrook using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pebblebrook charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pebblebrook Hotel Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 11.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pebblebrook Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pebblebrook Hotel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pebblebrook Hotel Stock Forecast Pattern
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Pebblebrook Hotel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pebblebrook Hotel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pebblebrook Hotel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.26 and 13.57, respectively. We have considered Pebblebrook Hotel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pebblebrook Hotel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pebblebrook Hotel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.7774 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0241 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1973 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.64 |
Predictive Modules for Pebblebrook Hotel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pebblebrook Hotel Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pebblebrook Hotel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Pebblebrook Hotel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pebblebrook Hotel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pebblebrook Hotel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pebblebrook Hotel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pebblebrook Hotel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pebblebrook Hotel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pebblebrook Hotel's historical news coverage. Pebblebrook Hotel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.37 and 13.67, respectively. We have considered Pebblebrook Hotel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pebblebrook Hotel is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pebblebrook Hotel Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pebblebrook Hotel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pebblebrook Hotel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pebblebrook Hotel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.52 | 11.52 | 0.00 |
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Pebblebrook Hotel Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is traded for 11.52. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Pebblebrook is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pebblebrook Hotel is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.52. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.53. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.48. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.18. The firm last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel to cross-verify your projections.Pebblebrook Hotel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pebblebrook Hotel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pebblebrook Hotel's future price movements. Getting to know how Pebblebrook Hotel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pebblebrook Hotel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RLJ | RLJ Lodging Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.06 | 3.08 | (2.22) | 8.37 | |
| XHR | Xenia Hotels Resorts | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.03 | 0.16 | 3.01 | (2.11) | 7.84 | |
| CLDT | Chatham Lodging Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.08 | 2.83 | (2.12) | 7.58 | |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.35 | (3.01) | 7.09 | |
| JBGS | JBG SMITH Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.97 | (2.70) | 6.30 | |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.50 | 0.04 | 2.67 | (2.77) | 6.97 | |
| UMH | UMH Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.07 | 2.07 | (2.16) | 4.82 | |
| DRH | Diamondrock Hospitality | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.29 | 0.12 | 3.33 | (2.49) | 11.87 | |
| SILA | Sila Realty Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | (0.0009) | 2.17 | (1.67) | 5.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pebblebrook Hotel
For every potential investor in Pebblebrook, whether a beginner or expert, Pebblebrook Hotel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pebblebrook Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pebblebrook. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pebblebrook Hotel's price trends.Pebblebrook Hotel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pebblebrook Hotel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pebblebrook Hotel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pebblebrook Hotel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pebblebrook Hotel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pebblebrook Hotel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pebblebrook Hotel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pebblebrook Hotel Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pebblebrook Hotel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pebblebrook Hotel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pebblebrook stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Variance | 4.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pebblebrook Hotel
The number of cover stories for Pebblebrook Hotel depends on current market conditions and Pebblebrook Hotel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pebblebrook Hotel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pebblebrook Hotel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Pebblebrook Hotel Short Properties
Pebblebrook Hotel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pebblebrook Hotel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pebblebrook Hotel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pebblebrook Hotel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 119.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 206.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pebblebrook Hotel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pebblebrook Hotel. Anticipated expansion of Pebblebrook directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Pebblebrook Hotel assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate Pebblebrook Hotel Trust using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Pebblebrook Hotel's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Pebblebrook Hotel's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Pebblebrook Hotel's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Pebblebrook Hotel should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Pebblebrook Hotel's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.