Reckitt Benckiser Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

RBGLY Stock  USD 16.45  0.05  0.30%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Reckitt Benckiser Group on the next trading day is expected to be 16.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.80. Reckitt Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Reckitt Benckiser's share price is below 20 indicating that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Reckitt Benckiser's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Reckitt Benckiser Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Reckitt Benckiser hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Reckitt Benckiser Group from the perspective of Reckitt Benckiser response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Reckitt Benckiser Group on the next trading day is expected to be 16.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.80.

Reckitt Benckiser after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 16.45  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Reckitt Benckiser to cross-verify your projections.

Reckitt Benckiser Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Reckitt price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Reckitt using various technical indicators. When you analyze Reckitt charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Reckitt Benckiser is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Reckitt Benckiser Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Reckitt Benckiser Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Reckitt Benckiser Group on the next trading day is expected to be 16.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Reckitt Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Reckitt Benckiser's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Reckitt Benckiser Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Reckitt BenckiserReckitt Benckiser Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Reckitt Benckiser Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Reckitt Benckiser's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Reckitt Benckiser's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.45 and 17.25, respectively. We have considered Reckitt Benckiser's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.45
16.35
Expected Value
17.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Reckitt Benckiser pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Reckitt Benckiser pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9402
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1096
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0069
SAESum of the absolute errors6.7954
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Reckitt Benckiser Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Reckitt Benckiser. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Reckitt Benckiser

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Reckitt Benckiser. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.5516.4517.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.3116.2117.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.7116.2316.75
Details

Reckitt Benckiser After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Reckitt Benckiser at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Reckitt Benckiser or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Reckitt Benckiser, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Reckitt Benckiser Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Reckitt Benckiser's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Reckitt Benckiser's historical news coverage. Reckitt Benckiser's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.55 and 17.35, respectively. We have considered Reckitt Benckiser's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.45
16.45
After-hype Price
17.35
Upside
Reckitt Benckiser is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Reckitt Benckiser is based on 3 months time horizon.

Reckitt Benckiser Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Reckitt Benckiser is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Reckitt Benckiser backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Reckitt Benckiser, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
0.90
  0.01 
  0.04 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.45
16.45
0.00 
600.00  
Notes

Reckitt Benckiser Hype Timeline

Reckitt Benckiser is at this time traded for 16.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Reckitt is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Reckitt Benckiser is about 186.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.49. The book value of the company was at this time reported as 2.5. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of August 2022. Reckitt Benckiser had 1028:1000 split on the 31st of December 2014. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Reckitt Benckiser to cross-verify your projections.

Reckitt Benckiser Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Reckitt Benckiser's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Reckitt Benckiser's future price movements. Getting to know how Reckitt Benckiser's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Reckitt Benckiser may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DGEAFDiageo plc 0.15 20 per month 0.00 (0.09) 3.45 (3.51) 9.95 
DANOYDanone PK 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.23) 1.23 (1.97) 9.35 
GPDNFDanone SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 1.91 (2.58) 12.32 
WMMVFWal Mart de 0.15 16 per month 1.95 (0.01) 4.44 (3.70) 19.49 
WMMVYWal Mart de(0.27)4 per month 1.16 (0.03) 2.07 (1.67) 5.86 
HENOYHenkel Ag A 0.00 0 per month 0.96 (0.05) 1.91 (1.48) 5.96 
HENOFHenkel AG Co(0.95)12 per month 0.00 (0.13) 1.53 (2.04) 5.12 
HELKFHenkel AG Co(0.95)12 per month 0.00 (0.02) 0.77  0.00  4.44 
HENKYHenkel AG Co(0.95)16 per month 0.83 (0) 2.13 (1.38) 4.28 
HEINYHeineken NV 7.65 19 per month 0.00 (0.1) 1.96 (1.73) 7.33 

Other Forecasting Options for Reckitt Benckiser

For every potential investor in Reckitt, whether a beginner or expert, Reckitt Benckiser's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Reckitt Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Reckitt. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Reckitt Benckiser's price trends.

Reckitt Benckiser Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Reckitt Benckiser pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Reckitt Benckiser could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Reckitt Benckiser by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Reckitt Benckiser Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Reckitt Benckiser pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Reckitt Benckiser shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Reckitt Benckiser pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Reckitt Benckiser Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Reckitt Benckiser Risk Indicators

The analysis of Reckitt Benckiser's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Reckitt Benckiser's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting reckitt pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Reckitt Benckiser

The number of cover stories for Reckitt Benckiser depends on current market conditions and Reckitt Benckiser's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Reckitt Benckiser is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Reckitt Benckiser's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Reckitt Benckiser Short Properties

Reckitt Benckiser's future price predictability will typically decrease when Reckitt Benckiser's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Reckitt Benckiser Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Reckitt Benckiser's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Reckitt Benckiser's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3.6 B
Cash And Short Term Investments1.3 B

Additional Tools for Reckitt Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Reckitt Benckiser's price analysis, check to measure Reckitt Benckiser's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Reckitt Benckiser is operating at the current time. Most of Reckitt Benckiser's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Reckitt Benckiser's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Reckitt Benckiser's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Reckitt Benckiser to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.