Banking Fund Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

RYBKX Fund  USD 107.42  2.30  2.10%   
Banking Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Banking Fund's share price is at 54 indicating that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Banking Fund, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Banking Fund's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Banking Fund Class, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Banking Fund hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Banking Fund Class from the perspective of Banking Fund response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Banking Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 111.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.38.

Banking Fund after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 91.76  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Banking Fund to cross-verify your projections.

Banking Fund Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Banking price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Banking using various technical indicators. When you analyze Banking charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Banking Fund price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Banking Fund Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Banking Fund Class on the next trading day is expected to be 111.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.58, mean absolute percentage error of 3.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.38.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Banking Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Banking Fund's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Banking Fund Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Banking Fund Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Banking Fund's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Banking Fund's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 110.16 and 112.23, respectively. We have considered Banking Fund's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
107.42
110.16
Downside
111.19
Expected Value
112.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Banking Fund mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Banking Fund mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.456
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5799
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0153
SAESum of the absolute errors96.3757
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Banking Fund Class historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Banking Fund

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Banking Fund Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
90.7291.76118.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
94.0395.07118.16
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
105.91108.16110.40
Details

Banking Fund After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Banking Fund at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Banking Fund or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Banking Fund, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Banking Fund Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Banking Fund's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Banking Fund's historical news coverage. Banking Fund's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 90.72 and 118.16, respectively. We have considered Banking Fund's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
107.42
91.76
After-hype Price
118.16
Upside
Banking Fund is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Banking Fund Class is based on 3 months time horizon.

Banking Fund Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Banking Fund is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Banking Fund backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Banking Fund, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.18 
1.04
  15.66 
  0.40 
3 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
107.42
91.76
14.58 
1.20  
Notes

Banking Fund Hype Timeline

Banking Fund Class is at this time traded for 107.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -15.66, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.4. Banking is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 91.76. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 1.2%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -14.58%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Banking Fund is about 47.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 107.02. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.05. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Banking Fund Class last dividend was issued on the 10th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Banking Fund to cross-verify your projections.

Banking Fund Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Banking Fund's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Banking Fund's future price movements. Getting to know how Banking Fund's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Banking Fund may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Banking Fund

For every potential investor in Banking, whether a beginner or expert, Banking Fund's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Banking Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Banking. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Banking Fund's price trends.

Banking Fund Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Banking Fund mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Banking Fund could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Banking Fund by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Banking Fund Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Banking Fund mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Banking Fund shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Banking Fund mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Banking Fund Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Banking Fund Risk Indicators

The analysis of Banking Fund's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Banking Fund's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting banking mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Banking Fund

The number of cover stories for Banking Fund depends on current market conditions and Banking Fund's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Banking Fund is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Banking Fund's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Banking Mutual Fund

Banking Fund financial ratios help investors to determine whether Banking Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Banking with respect to the benefits of owning Banking Fund security.
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