Selective Insurance Preferred Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

Selective Insurance Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Selective price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Selective using various technical indicators. When you analyze Selective charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Selective Insurance is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Selective Insurance Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Selective Insurance Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Selective Insurance Group on the next trading day is expected to be 17.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.98.

Selective Insurance Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

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Selective Insurance Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Selective Insurance Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Selective Insurance preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Selective Insurance preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Selective Insurance Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Selective Insurance. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Selective Insurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Selective Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 16.65 17.25 17.85 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 16.60 17.20 17.80 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 16.63 16.86 17.10 Details

Selective Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Selective Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Selective Insurance Preferred Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Selective Insurance Hype Timeline

Selective Insurance is at this time traded for 17.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Selective is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 17.25 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 171.43%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Selective Insurance is about 1000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.24. The company reported the revenue of 3.56 B. Net Income was 224.89 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 740.5 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 32 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Selective Insurance to cross-verify your projections.

Selective Insurance Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Selective Insurance

For every potential investor in Selective, whether a beginner or expert, Selective Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Selective Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Selective. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Selective Insurance's price trends.

Selective Insurance Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Selective Insurance Market Strength Events

Selective Insurance Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Selective Insurance

Other Macroaxis Stories

Selective Insurance Short Properties

Additional Tools for Selective Preferred Stock Analysis