Skeena Resources Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SKE Stock | CAD 44.03 1.03 2.40% |
Skeena Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Skeena Resources' share price is above 70 as of today. This usually implies that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Skeena, making its price go up or down. Momentum 77
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Skeena Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Skeena Resources from the perspective of Skeena Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Skeena Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 46.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.84. Skeena Resources after-hype prediction price | CAD 44.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Skeena |
Skeena Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Skeena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Skeena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Skeena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Skeena Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Skeena Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 46.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Skeena Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Skeena Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Skeena Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Skeena Resources | Skeena Resources Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Skeena Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Skeena Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Skeena Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.80 and 49.47, respectively. We have considered Skeena Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Skeena Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Skeena Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8322 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.686 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0223 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.845 |
Predictive Modules for Skeena Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Skeena Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Skeena Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Skeena Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Skeena Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Skeena Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Skeena Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Skeena Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Skeena Resources' historical news coverage. Skeena Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.20 and 46.86, respectively. We have considered Skeena Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Skeena Resources is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Skeena Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
Skeena Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Skeena Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Skeena Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Skeena Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.10 | 2.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.03 | 44.03 | 0.00 |
|
Skeena Resources Hype Timeline
Skeena Resources is at this time traded for 44.03on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Skeena is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Skeena Resources is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.03. About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.98. Skeena Resources last dividend was issued on the 20th of October 2017. The entity had 1:4 split on the 10th of June 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Skeena Resources to cross-verify your projections.Skeena Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Skeena Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Skeena Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Skeena Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Skeena Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AII | Almonty Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.80 | 0.15 | 9.14 | (7.42) | 19.75 | |
| ERD | Erdene Resource Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.02 | 0.06 | 5.56 | (4.03) | 21.47 | |
| AAUC | Allied Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.87 | 0.27 | 6.26 | (4.66) | 15.55 | |
| MAU | Montage Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.45 | 0.31 | 6.54 | (3.13) | 13.37 | |
| IE | Ivanhoe Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.82 | 0.11 | 6.37 | (5.40) | 25.19 | |
| USA | Americas Silver Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.15 | 0.26 | 8.70 | (5.74) | 18.74 | |
| ARIS | Aris Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.42 | 6.38 | (2.65) | 14.23 | |
| FOM | Foran Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.33 | 0.35 | 7.18 | (2.56) | 13.97 | |
| CIA | Champion Iron | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.20 | 4.31 | (2.47) | 15.06 | |
| LAC | Lithium Americas Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.78 | 0.01 | 7.03 | (6.38) | 13.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for Skeena Resources
For every potential investor in Skeena, whether a beginner or expert, Skeena Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Skeena Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Skeena. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Skeena Resources' price trends.Skeena Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Skeena Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Skeena Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Skeena Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Skeena Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Skeena Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Skeena Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Skeena Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Skeena Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Skeena Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Skeena Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Skeena Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting skeena stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Variance | 8.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.1 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Skeena Resources
The number of cover stories for Skeena Resources depends on current market conditions and Skeena Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Skeena Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Skeena Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Skeena Resources Short Properties
Skeena Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when Skeena Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Skeena Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Skeena Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Skeena Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 99.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 97.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Skeena Resources to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Skeena Stock, please use our How to Invest in Skeena Resources guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.