Sonoco Products Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

SON Stock  USD 47.86  0.40  0.84%   
Sonoco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Sonoco Products' stock price is about 62. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Sonoco, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 62

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Sonoco Products' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Sonoco Products, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Sonoco Products hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sonoco Products from the perspective of Sonoco Products response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sonoco Products on the next trading day is expected to be 47.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.92.

Sonoco Products after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 47.86  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonoco Products to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Sonoco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Sonoco Products guide.

Sonoco Products Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Sonoco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sonoco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sonoco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Sonoco Products simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Sonoco Products are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Sonoco Products prices get older.

Sonoco Products Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sonoco Products on the next trading day is expected to be 47.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sonoco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sonoco Products' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sonoco Products Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sonoco Products  Sonoco Products Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Sonoco Products Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sonoco Products' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sonoco Products' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.51 and 49.21, respectively. We have considered Sonoco Products' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
47.86
47.86
Expected Value
49.21
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sonoco Products stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sonoco Products stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.2553
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1303
MADMean absolute deviation0.4653
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0106
SAESum of the absolute errors27.92
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Sonoco Products forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Sonoco Products observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Sonoco Products

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sonoco Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
46.5147.8649.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
43.0754.4055.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
42.7946.7650.73
Details

Sonoco Products After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Sonoco Products at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sonoco Products or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sonoco Products, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Sonoco Products Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Sonoco Products' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sonoco Products' historical news coverage. Sonoco Products' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.51 and 49.21, respectively. We have considered Sonoco Products' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
47.86
47.86
After-hype Price
49.21
Upside
Sonoco Products is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sonoco Products is based on 3 months time horizon.

Sonoco Products Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sonoco Products is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sonoco Products backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sonoco Products, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.30 
1.35
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
47.86
47.86
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Sonoco Products Hype Timeline

On the 29th of January Sonoco Products is traded for 47.86. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Sonoco is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sonoco Products is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.86. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.44. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sonoco Products has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.2. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of December 2025. The firm had 11:10 split on the 13th of May 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonoco Products to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Sonoco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Sonoco Products guide.

Sonoco Products Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Sonoco Products' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sonoco Products' future price movements. Getting to know how Sonoco Products' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sonoco Products may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Sonoco Products

For every potential investor in Sonoco, whether a beginner or expert, Sonoco Products' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sonoco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sonoco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sonoco Products' price trends.

Sonoco Products Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sonoco Products stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sonoco Products could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sonoco Products by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sonoco Products Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sonoco Products stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sonoco Products shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sonoco Products stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sonoco Products entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sonoco Products Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sonoco Products' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sonoco Products' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sonoco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Sonoco Products

The number of cover stories for Sonoco Products depends on current market conditions and Sonoco Products' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sonoco Products is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sonoco Products' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Sonoco Products Short Properties

Sonoco Products' future price predictability will typically decrease when Sonoco Products' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sonoco Products often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sonoco Products' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sonoco Products' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding99.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments431 M
When determining whether Sonoco Products offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Sonoco Products' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Sonoco Products Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Sonoco Products Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonoco Products to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Sonoco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Sonoco Products guide.
You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Sonoco diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sonoco Products. If investors know Sonoco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Sonoco Products data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Sonoco Products using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Sonoco Products' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Sonoco Products' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sonoco Products' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sonoco Products is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Sonoco Products' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.