USCF Gold Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| USG Etf | USD 39.59 0.30 0.76% |
USCF Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of USCF Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of USCF Gold's share price is above 70 as of 26th of January 2026. This usually implies that the etf is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling USCF, making its price go up or down. Momentum 77
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using USCF Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of USCF Gold Strategy from the perspective of USCF Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of USCF Gold Strategy on the next trading day is expected to be 40.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.95. USCF Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of USCF Gold to cross-verify your projections. USCF Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine USCF price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for USCF using various technical indicators. When you analyze USCF charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
USCF Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of USCF Gold Strategy on the next trading day is expected to be 40.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict USCF Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that USCF Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
USCF Gold Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest USCF Gold | USCF Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
USCF Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting USCF Gold's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. USCF Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.89 and 42.03, respectively. We have considered USCF Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of USCF Gold etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent USCF Gold etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2204 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2943 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.9547 |
Predictive Modules for USCF Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as USCF Gold Strategy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of USCF Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
USCF Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of USCF Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in USCF Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of USCF Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
USCF Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting USCF Gold's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on USCF Gold's historical news coverage. USCF Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 1.07, respectively. We have considered USCF Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
USCF Gold is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of USCF Gold Strategy is based on 3 months time horizon.
USCF Gold Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as USCF Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading USCF Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with USCF Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
39.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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USCF Gold Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January USCF Gold Strategy is traded for 39.59. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. USCF is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on USCF Gold is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.59. About 82.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of USCF Gold was at this time reported as 10.24. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.37. USCF Gold Strategy last dividend was issued on the 3rd of October 2018. The entity had 1:40 split on the 20th of May 1993. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of USCF Gold to cross-verify your projections.USCF Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to USCF Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict USCF Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how USCF Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how USCF Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FEOPX | Fidelity Enduring Opportunities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CNZLX | Commonwealth Australianew Zealand | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.53 | (0) | 1.05 | (1.06) | 3.25 | |
| FAPHX | Fidelity Summer Street | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.54 | (0.1) | 0.79 | (0.85) | 2.36 | |
| RCKSX | Rock Oak E | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.59 | 0.04 | 1.21 | (0.97) | 3.77 | |
| JAQAX | Janus Asia Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ASPGX | Astor Star Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.51 | (0.12) | 0.71 | (0.80) | 2.15 | |
| FSYRX | Fidelity Sustainable International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.01 | 1.19 | (1.62) | 3.42 | |
| ASCGX | Lebenthal Lisanti Small | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.59 | (0.05) | 2.14 | (2.53) | 6.73 | |
| EAPDX | Parametric Dividend Income | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FFIDX | Fidelity Fund Fidelity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.70 | (0.06) | 1.30 | (1.19) | 3.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for USCF Gold
For every potential investor in USCF, whether a beginner or expert, USCF Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. USCF Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in USCF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying USCF Gold's price trends.USCF Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with USCF Gold etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of USCF Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing USCF Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
USCF Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how USCF Gold etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading USCF Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying USCF Gold etf market strength indicators, traders can identify USCF Gold Strategy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
USCF Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of USCF Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in USCF Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting uscf etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7283 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6983 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Variance | 1.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4876 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for USCF Gold
The number of cover stories for USCF Gold depends on current market conditions and USCF Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that USCF Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about USCF Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of USCF Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
The market value of USCF Gold Strategy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of USCF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of USCF Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is USCF Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because USCF Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect USCF Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between USCF Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if USCF Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, USCF Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.